Completely Arbitrary

ARTHUR:
Anaheim calling to the hockey world...

TSN reported this weekend that Ducks defenseman James Wisniewski was one of 20 players who requested to take their teams to salary arbitration this offseason. The process can be a messy affair if the team and player ever make it to a hearing, where blunt characterizations are supported by circumstantial evidence.

As a hypothetical exercise (and because we love blunt characterizations and circumstantial evidence), Daniel and I will play the roles of ruthless salary arbitration advocates for Wisniewski and the Ducks, respectively. We will be using the statistics chart below, in addition to any evidence we feel relevant in determining a fair salary.

Stats Obtained from NHL.com and hockeyreference.com (expanded +/-): G=Goals A=Assists P=Points +/-=Plus/Minus PN=Number of Penalties PIM=Penalty Minutes SHF=# of Shifts AVG=Average Time/Shift S=Shots on Goal A/B=Attempts Blocked MS=Missed Shots HT=Hits Given GV=Giveaways TK=Takeaways BS=Blocked Shots PP=Power Play SH=Short Handed EV=Even Strength OT=Overtime TOT=Total Time On Ice TGF=Total Goals For PGF=Power Play Goals For TGA=Total Goals Against PGA=Power Play Goals Against

Alright, Daniel. Make your case.

DANIEL:
James Wisniewski is an invaluable asset for the Anaheim Ducks. With the loss of Pronger and Beauchemin, James will be one of the top defenseman in TOI, going past the 19:51 he averaged last season. In the 17 regualr season games he played for the Ducks, in only 5 did he play less than 21 minutes. As that time increases, so will the opportunity to increase all other statistical categories. Moreover, James has seen significant proportional increases in points and decreases in PIM. Wisniewski's totals with the Anaheim Ducks, when projected over an 82 game season, would be 52 points and 76 PIM. Compare that to the 103 PIM he had in only 68 games the year before, as well as the 26 points in the same time frame. Additionally, Wisniewski has always been a plus player. Never in his career has he been a minus player, meaning he is solid in one of the key statistics that measures how good defensemen are at defending. His +9 rating puts him in the top 45 among all defensemen in the league. That would rate him as a Top 2 defenseman, which most teams would claim is a nearly priceless asset.

Therefore, Wisniewski should make $3.25 million next year. It would make him the third highest paid man on the defensive corps, despite being second in points accumulated, and number one in +/-. This would also put him in the same price range of defensemen who do not have equally impressive statistical lines. Brooks Orpik of Pittsburgh earns 3.75 million a year to produce 5 less points and skate only 30 seconds more a game, or one more shift. Orpik only finished with a +10 rating, one better than James. Bryce Salvador of New Jersey, skates 30 seconds less, scored 8 less points and finished with a -1 rating for the bargain price of $2.9 million. Niklas Kronwall of Detroit makes $3 million a year to produce numbers that are close to Winiewski's 2009-2010 projections: 51 points, 22:53 TOI, and +6 rating that would be potentially smaller than Wisniewski. Atlanta's Zach Bogosian plays almost a full 2 minutes less per game, produced 5 less points, and was not on a playoff team. All of these defensemen log significant minutes for their teams in clutch situations, and produce numbers comparable to those of James Wisniewski.

More importantly, Wisniewski has become important as a physical presence on the team. Wisniewski had 36 hits in the playoffs to lead all Anaheim defensemen. In fact, that total is double that of any other skater now on the Anaheim blueline. And his 90 hits led Anaheim defensemen in the regular season. Hockey is a physical game, and Wisniewski provides a shield to his teammates, and makes opposing forwards work for their scoring opportunities. He has demonstrated a willingness to pay the price in order to get the job done defensively by blocking 12 shots in the playoffs and 60 in the regular season, a total closer to 120 projected over a complete season. He has demonstrated a tough attitude and a willingness to put himself out there in order to accomplish the greatest amount of success for the team. He has what is known in the sports world as "heart." Based on the salaries of comparable defensemen who have similar worth to their respective teams, and similar statistical success, James Wisniewski should be compensated in the sum of $3.25 million annually for the quality of services he provides to the Anaheim Ducks and its defensive corps.

ARTHUR:
Three issues diminish Wisniewski's value: the defenseman is an injury risk, he displays lapses in judgment and his contributions as a niche player are limited.

Injury Risk
James Wisniewski has never played an 82-game season in the NHL, and much of that can be attributed to repeated injuries to his right knee. In March of 2007, he tore his right ACL in a game against the Kings. He then sprained the MCL in the same knee during a fight with Jordin Tootoo in December of that year. Then, last July, he tore his right ACL again while training for the 08-09 season.

The longevity of Wisniewski's knee is questionable after THREE major injuries in the last 18 months. This should diminish the value or term of his contract.

Lapses in Judgment
Wisniewski is prone to lapses in rudimentary hockey judgment. During an Oilers game on March 27th, the forwards were pressuring the puck in the corner on Wisniewski's side of the ice. Scott Niedermayer pinched down toward center ice to support a play to the net. The puck squeezed out, and stopped under the circles on Wisniewski's side. The defenseman took two strides toward the puck before he realized he was the last man back. That action is dangerous, whether it is attributed to lack of awareness, lack of understanding of the forechecking system or over-committing to offensive-defense.

In that same game, Wisniewski decided to support a play in the corner, even though Dustin Penner (a front-of-the-net player) was hovering around him. Sure enough, Penner received a pass in front of the goalmouth and scored. Two nights later, killing a penalty against the Colorado Avalanche, Wisniewski again chose to abandon the net to support the play in the corner. And again, the puck was centered and converted. To me, these plays indicate that Wisniewski does not know when he can and cannot go into the corner and successfully retrieve the puck, or worse, that he is completely incapable of going into the corner and successfully retrieving the puck. Either would make him a defensive liability.

Wisniewski displays inconsistent and sometimes poor judgment. He has not produced enough offensively at the NHL level to compensate for that shortcoming, and his value should be diminished as he is potentially a defensive liability.

Limited Contributions
-Intangibles
Wisniewski can be characterized as a locker room guy. However, the Ducks are getting younger this year, and parting ways with many of the "serious" older players that won the Cup in 2007, making his contribution far from unique.

-Statistical Contributions
Based on his performance with the Ducks, I believe Wisniewski can only characterize himself as one of two player types: an offensive-defenseman or a hitter/shot-blocker. He may argue that he is also a fighter, but he has yet to fight for Anaheim, and was rarely successful in his past fights.

Of the offensive-defenseman signed this offseason, Wisniewski most directly compares with Steve Montador. Both players have skated at forward in their careers, both players feel comfortable handling the puck in the offensive zone and both players averaged .06 G per game for the Ducks last season.

You could argue that Wisniewski was on pace for more assists, but despite being known for an accurate shot that gets on net, Wisniewski missed 37 shots last season, averaging .77 missed shots per game. Montador averaged .67, while obtaining an identical shooting percentage. If compared to Montador, Wisniewski should receive a contract no larger than the 2 yrs./1.55M per year that Montador received, and arguably less because Montador has proven himself consistent in recent seasons.

But let's say we compare Wisniewski to an offensive-defenseman that hasn't proven consistent. After a great offensive season in Russia, Anton Babchuk returned to the NHL this year, accepting a one-year 1M deal with Carolina. He went on to produce 16 G and 19 A in 72 games at a .23 goals per game clip. That's almost four times the Ducks blueliner's pace. As an offensive-defenseman, Wisniewski's market value this year can be no more than 1 to 1.5M per year, and is probably less when you consider he did not outperform similar defensemen, and that offensive rearguards like Marc-Andre Bergeron (1.7M last year with 14 G and 18 A) remain unsigned.

If Wisniewski believes he is a hitter/shot-blocker, the most direct comparison this offseason is Greg Zanon, who signed for 3 yrs./1.93M per year with Minnesota. The No. 3 shotblocker in the league logged 237 blocked shots (2.89 per game) and 153 hits (1.76 per game). By comparison, Wisniewski had 60 blocked shots (1.25 per game) and 90 hits (1.875 per game) in his shortened season, which is even less impressive when you consider that Zanon averaged 20:51 through ALL 82 games this season.

Conclusion
As an injury risk, an inconsistent performer and arguably an under-performer, I believe Wisniewski would be overvalued at more than 2 yrs./1.375M per year.

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Game 3 - WCQF at Ponda Center

ARTHUR:
Anaheim calling to the hockey world...

This is a solo edition of Cold Hard Stats.

While reading the Monday hype for tonight's game, I came across two things that contradicted what I think I know about the Sharks:

The first was McLellan's insistence to The Hockey News that he had no intention of changing the way his team plays as they were "one goal behind in both games, with - in my opinion - more chances."

The second was Pronger's quote to The LA Times, which estimated that, "They have a very potent power play and at some point they're going to explode."

Now, the Sharks hit some injuries and a scoring drought midseason, though they seemed to climb out of it before the trade deadline. Still, to my recollection, they hadn't won many games by multiple goals down the stretch, and they struggled heavily both on the power play and at even strength against Pacific Division teams. If that's true, it would make McLellan's quote sound rather silly, and confirm Pronger's quote to be more of a sports platitude than anything else. Let me use some statistics from the months of March and April to illustrate my view on this.

McLellan's Quote
For the months of March and April, McLellan's Sharks went 11-8 with 2 overtime losses. Three of those wins came by way of Shootout and one in OT. That gives the Sharks a regulation record of 7-8.

Of those 7 wins, only 2 were decided by a goal differential greater than 1, and the 3-1 victory over the Avs on March 22nd included an Empty Net goal by Setoguchi. That means that for the months of March and April, the Sharks won just ONE game where their opponent was not in striking distance when the horn sounded.

Now, McLellan could be saying he's staying neck and neck with a good team, and his team has the opportunity to win these games if not for the unlucky bounces-- but shouldn't Carlyle be saying that? Since when does a Presidents' Trophy team hang its hat on staying with an eighth seed (even a great eighth seed)?

Again here, let's go back to the March and April records. The Sharks dropped 8 games to teams that were 6th or lower in the Western Conference standings, including 2 losses to the Coyotes, who were cycling in minor league players. And of San Jose's 4 wins after regulation, one came in overtime against MIN and three were decided in shootouts against LA, COL and NSH (all teams placed 6th or lower at game time).

San Jose had the luxury of finishing the season against teams that were missing or were in danger of missing the playoffs, and they notched ONE convincing win. You can argue that a malaise came over the team, as they had clinched a playoff spot and were staring at an easy schedule, maybe surprised by teams with something to play for down the stretch. But that malaise is only okay if you snap out of it when the playoffs start. You DEFINITELY shouldn't be proud that you're STILL playing that way. Carlyle should be happy that these games are close; McLellan should be upset.

Pronger's Quote
Don't get me wrong, the Sharks have a great power play. They're stacked with talent and maybe only 3 teams in the league can hold the zone and move the puck as well as they do. But in a series where the Ducks are stymieing the Sharks' offensive zone entry, you have to wonder if Anaheim hasn't also figured out how to defuse much of the explosiveness of San Jose's power play after it sets up in the Ducks' end.

Let's go back to the March and April stats. In that block of time, San Jose played 10 games against the Pacific Division, going 5-5, and 11 games against the rest of the Western Conference. In those 11 games, San Jose matched up with teams like MIN, CGY, NSH and STL-- all top 10 in PK% in the league. The Sharks went 10 for 37 (27%), commensurate with their season total of 24.2% with the man-advantage.

However, against the Pacific Division, the Sharks went 10 for 52 (19.2%). And if you factor out the 3 for 7 showing April 11th against the Kings, the Sharks power play would have tallied 15.6%. Now, a 20% power play is nothing to scoff at, but consider that in the Pacific Division, only LA and SJ have competent PK stats this season. ANA, DAL and PHX all placed 23rd or worse when down a man. Yet, these teams were comfortable taking 52 penalties against the league's 3rd best power play?

I doubt ANYONE could beat the Sharks giving up 6 penalties per game, but the fear of an explosion implies you've showed this power play some respect before. You haven't, and with Phoenix beating San Jose 4-1 while turning them away 0 for 6, something on these Pacific Division scouting reports probably says you shouldn't.

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Calder-copia

[Ryan forces Bob Miller to learn his name]

ARTHUR:
With about ten games left in the NHL season, a number of the statistical awards appear settled. Evgeni Malkin will take home the Art Ross Trophy, while Alexander Ovechkin will claim the Maurice Richard. However, the more subjective trophies, like say, the Calder Trophy, remain up for grabs. For the first half of the season, Kris Versteeg (CHI), Drew Doughty (LAK), and Steve Mason (CBJ) positioned themselves as the front-runners for the NHL's Rookie of the Year honor, but Blake Wheeler (+36 for BOS) and Bobby Ryan (24G) have filled out the picture.

With such a tight race, Daniel, who do YOU think the Calder Trophy winner should be? And make the statistical argument for your choice.

DANIEL:
This is a tough choice for me. I'll start by saying that if this was a list of all position players then Ryan is the obvious choice. He's played almost 15 less games than everyone on the list except Steve Mason, and he's still second in scoring. If he's here when the year starts maybe Morrison has a better year surrounded by Bobby and Selanne. I honestly believe that. Versteeg has been just as good as Bobby in everything else. Versteeg has a better +/- by 2. I think that Ryan is a little more important to how well we do though, that is we need Ryan a little more than Chicago needs Versteeg.

Wheeler is an interesting option as well. His +/- is a ridiculous 36 and he's third in rookie scoring behind Versteeg and Ryan, but he's also played the most games and has had a solid year on what has been a really good Bruins team leaving the question if his +/- stat isn't padded by being on that team. Also, of all the rookie candidates Wheeler spends the least amount of time on the ice averaging just under 14:00 a game. Versteeg averages about 17:00 a game and Ryan about 15:00. I think this stat is a little deceptive though. When Ryan first came up he would maybe get 10:00 to 12:00 minutes a game and he was spending a lot of time with Parros and Miller. Over the last 5 games Bobby only played less than 17:00 minutes once, putting him right around the kind of minutes Versteeg is logging with Chicago. I think you can dismiss Wheeler because he's played the most games and therefore his TOI stat is the most revealing, his 14:00 minutes a game mean he isn't a significant part of the Boston game plan. Another thing to look at when seeing who is more important to what their team does, is Ryan's 9 PPG. That's 4 more than Versteeg and 6 more than Wheeler. That means that Ryan is playing significant Power Play time and is instrumental in the Duck attack.

Yes, Doughty deserves honorable mention. He leads rookie defenseman in TOI and points as well as game played, but his -12 is pretty glaring. Yes when you play that many minutes and you're a rookie, +/- is bound to be affected, but more importantly I haven't seen Doughty take over a stretch of play. Ryan does hard work along the boards and he comes up with big plays. Remember the Hat Trick he hung on Doughty's Kings in less than 5 minutes, and 2 of those goals came with Doughty on the ice. I think the fact that the Kings are out of the Playoff picture hurts Doughty. He's definitely the best rookie defenseman, but I don't think he's had the kind of spalsh and overall effect on a team that the other candidates have. And the only person on the list who's had the same impact on his team as Ryan is the next Candidate.

Goalies are a special breed, and it's usually hard to just step in and carry a team, but that's exactly what Steve Mason did. It's usually sexy to pick a forward who racks up a lot of points for the Calder, but Mason has led a team that's never been to the playoffs and has them the closest they've ever been. He leads all rookie net minders in almost every category, is in the top ten in both wins and save percentage and is 2nd in GAA. A team can ride a hot goalie into the post season and sometimes deep into the playoffs. The fact that this kid is performing so well that this former league doormat could be a problem in the post season means something. Not to mention that he completely dethroned the oft-injured Leclaire and his fancy new contract. I've got to give the Calder to Steve Mason. I love everything Bobby has done for us this year and he's going to be a star for a long time, but for a rookie to step between the pipes and do what Mason has done is just special. Mason has to get the Calder. Every GM and pundit will tell you that you need solid goaltending to make it in the post-season, and Mason has provided that for Columbus. The kid is going to make history for his organization in his first year. I don't know what else you need to be rookie of the year.

ARTHUR:
First, let me say that I don't think that hockey writers should speculate on what Bobby Ryan would have done with the Ducks in the first dozen games of the season, not when evaluating him as a Calder Trophy candidate. Versteeg and the other candidates should not be penalized because Brian Burke couldn't manage his finances. At best, you just have to think of Ryan as being injured or ineligible to play for the games he spent out of the lineup-- nothing that was his fault, but nothing that spells untapped potential for all those "lost" games.

The Calder declares itself as the award for the most "proficient" rookie. Let me give you some numbers that speak to proficiency - 30W and 9-SO for a team that is 18th in Goals scored AND Goals per game. The last netminder to win the Calder, Raycroft in 03-04, ended the season with 29 wins and 3-SO but a slightly better GAA at 2.05 (compared to Mason's 2.26). The new NHL rules skew a lot of the straightforward number comparisons, but wins and shutouts can always be balanced against a team's production to measure a goalie's skill. Mason has done what it takes.

But I won't dismiss the forwards. Immediately, Versteeg has the advantage of playing in Chicago. Unlike Mason and Ryan, it's likely that the voting hockey writers have seen Versteeg play. Remember that he opened scoring in Wrigley on New Year's Day. Versteeg has also shown some true grit and grind as a rookie, taking the major penalties when they need to be taken and potting four shorthanded goals for the Hawks. The only downside to Versteeg is that he isn't ending the season well, nursing a scoreless streak and a decrease in shifts due to some minus play. But overall, during the course of the season, he's been consistent, and has one fewer minus game than Ryan has.

If there is one thing Bobby Ryan has going for him, it's poise. I despise hockey intangibles in a stats discussion, but you have to look at what a team is asking you to do. The Blue Jackets were asking Mason to lead them to the playoffs. His success in that regard will speak to his proficiency. Versteeg is producing, but he's a 5th rounder playing on a team with Kane and Toews. Essentially, the game (with all its pressure and consequence) is NEVER on his stick. Bobby Ryan doesn't have that luxury. He's asked to win games, and to win them with whatever ice time Carlyle can spare in his matchup system. Bobby Ryan has played 35 games this season with fewer than 20 shifts; Versteeg has played only 6. Versteeg has seen 30+ shifts twice, Bobby's never seen more than 25. As you said, TOI can often be deceiving, and I think this is a head-to-head that goes to Ryan.

I'll still say Mason; the numbers are undeniable, but Ryan's performance this season puts him at a close second.

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The Stats That Keep The Ducks From Winning

ARTHUR:
As we post this tonight, the Ducks have edged out a 3-2 lead against Vancouver, going into the 3rd at Honda Center. Hopefully, they can turn around the fortunes of this recent home stand, which opened with losses to two fellow playoff contenders: Dallas and Minnesota. The Ducks seemed to outplay both teams in stretches, but they failed to capitalize on chances and surrendered quick scores.

Ducks fans like to blame close losses on the officiating, but Daniel, you and I are stat guys. So, give me your top three stats that best illustrate Anaheim's inability to finish, and tell me how we turn those around.


DANIEL:
The first stat we need to look at is our penalty killing. We're taking just as many penalties as we always do, but our PK used to be so much better. This year, we kill about 80% of of our penalties. Last year we killed 85% and the year we won the cup we were closer to 86%. Of course it's not just the percentage, we've given up more power play goals this year than we did in our cup year, and we're only 5 away from our total last year with a dozen games left. We are going to take penalties, but considering we've given up 64 goals in 67 games, it's hard to win games when you're practically giving up a power play goal every game. We play hard and penalties will come with that, the only answer is to make sure we can keep teams from scoring on the opportunities they are definitely going to get.

Hopefully, improving our PK will help with the other problem we're having which is just overall defense/goaltending. Jiggy has not been himself as his 3.12 GAA can tell you, as well as his .901 SV%. Overall, our team GAA is an astronomical 2.91. While Hiller has been impressive at times and Giguere has obviously struggled, for the most part, we just have breakdowns in fundamental defense. These breakdowns have led to goals in bunches. We were second in the league in GAA last year, giving up only 184 goals.  This year we've already given up 195. We built this team to have timely scoring and keep the puck out of the net. It's what we do. We are a puck control team and if we keep giving up these goal spurts we will not find ourselves playing post season hockey.

Finally, Getzlaf has to get hot. He's had one goal in the past 7 games, and only 2 assists in the past two weeks. Getzie is a prime contributor to our offense and everything goes better when he's hot. Not only are we scoring points, but that top line is great at generating chances by cycling the puck, controlling it down low and wearing down defenses. We need Getzlaf to get hot if we're going to stand any chance. Selanne is a veteran and he'll get his. But Getzlaf is so good at making the players around him better. He and Perry are a new Kariya-Selanne in the making. I think if Getzlaf gets going, our ability to keep teams pinned down in their own zone will grow exponentially and we'll have a better chance at creeping into the playoffs where he have a shot at making some great things happening.

ARTHUR:

I agree that the penalty killing and defense are failing us.  I do think Getzlaf needs to shoot more, but that feels like an organic, non-statistical observation because his numbers are certainly there.  The East Coaster-ati that don't watch our games would think Getzlaf is doing well based on his paper numbers.

Here are my three culprits

.375 OS%
The dreaded OS% measures a team's winning percentage when outshooting the opposition. Anaheim is tied for last in the league at an atrocious 37.5% with a record of 12-19-1. The 19 regulation losses are tied with Carolina for most in the league when the opponent was outshot.

The Ducks have undoubtedly lost to teams they've outplayed, but that accounts for maybe 5 of these 20 losses. The other 15 games were filled with wasted shots: drives from the point, tips in front and power moves into the crease, but never anyone there to claim the rebounds.

To turn this around, the Ducks need to crash more effectively. They need someone to cash-in the centering passes and the fat rebounds. Most of Dustin Penner's value came from these garbage goals. Todd Bertuzzi lacked the front-of-the-net awareness to replace him, and Chris Kunitz lacked the size. The Ducks need to find a way to get the same results with short passes and quick moves to the soft areas around the net that they once achieved with Penner's brute force.

Surrendered a G in The First 2:00 of Play For 3 Consecutive Games
In the Cup year, Anaheim was 14-15-5, .412, in games where the opponent scored first. This year, they're 7-25-3, .200, ranked 24th in the league.

They say championship teams win when the calls aren't going their way, when their goals are disallowed and when the opponent jumps out ahead with a lucky score. The Ducks have not been a championship team since they won the cup, and worse, they have created more adversity than they would have otherwise faced. This season has been plagued with defensive lapses and parades to the penalty box, and the team can never seem to muster up the energy to come back when playing from behind.

Carlyle has emphasized being "first" lately, and that's really the fix here. You can't teach a squad to handle adversity better; that's something they need to figure out on their own. As a coach, the best you can do is minimize the adversity your team faces. The Ducks need to be the first to win the faceoff, first to land the big hit, first to create a scoring chance and first to score.

Scott Niedermayer (-15) +/-
For the first time in 17 NHL seasons, Scott Niedermayer is on pace to finish as a double-digit minus player, despite scoring 44 points in 67 games. The Ducks captain has only posted two minus seasons prior to this one: last year, playing 48 games at -2, and 96-97, playing 81 games at -4.

The number is a function of Niedermayer's consistent 25-30 minutes of TOI, constantly shifting pairings and a Ducks team that is always playing from behind, forcing Niedermayer to pinch and crash for the entire 3rd period. By acquiring Wisniewski, a legitimate top-four defenseman, the front office had hoped to create solid pairings and alleviate the pressure on its top two blueliners.

It's true that Wisniewski and Niedermayer have some chemistry. However, both men have offensive instincts, and Wisniewski has shown an inability to cover (or to know when to cover) for the Ducks captain, surrendering a goal in each of the last two games. The only conceivable fix for these last dozen or so games is for Wisniewski to play a little more stay-at-home, and for Brookbank and Festerling to step up and buy Niedermayer some more time to rest.

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