Addendum to Top 20 Prospects: Preseason 2009

ARTHUR:
A couple more cuts. The Ducks announced that they have waived Steve McCarthy and sent Matt McCue to Manitoba. I had thought McCue was doing well in camp, but a move to the Moose could mean the Front Office was having trouble finding a place for him.

I was recently asked about McCue and how someone who has hung on this long could have missed my prospects list, along with players like Brittain and Macenauer, while a player like Salcido makes the Top 20.

The answers?

• McCue represents the 'size=potential' logjam I see at the bottom of the list, of which Vaive is comically emblematic.
• Brittain misses the list because he hasn't signed and the Ducks seem (inexplicably) enamored with Troy Bodie i.e. Brittain has a similar, more developed player (signed until 2011) standing between him and the Ducks.
• Macenauer is a bit complicated. He came all the way back from injury and signed with the team, but I just didn't see the next level in his play (semi-confirmed when he seemed to injure himself in rookie camp). Ultimately, I can't wait to be wrong about him, and he'll hover around the bottom 5 of my list after a good showing in the Pros.
• Salcido makes the list because the Front Office loved him, mentioning him in the same breath as Fetserling and Mikkelson. Perhaps a PR play to the Orange County audience, perhaps not. I saw enough potential to put him on the list at what was the likely end of of his minor league development process with the Ducks i.e. now or never.
• Oh, and if you're wondering, Bodie doesn't make the list because I see giant holes in skill. The Front Office and coaching staff treat him like he's knocking on the door, but I just don't see it.

Reading through my reasoning in bullet point form, it feels very natural to me, but as my list differs quite a bit from Rob and HF, I thought I should describe my basic rubric. I DON'T rank prospects strictly by projected NHL skill, and I think even professional scouts find that task rather difficult. My list is geared toward the likelihood you'll see the player in a Ducks uniform, excluding players who've played their rookie NHL season (25 games). I use the following three factors to come up with a projection of the player's future in Anaheim:

1. Position in the Development Process:
The world is an unpredictable place, and a kid with a promising career can definitely find himself behind a grinder with a signed contract and a steady development record in the AHL-- at least on my list. Unfortunately, a kid whose maintained a spotless record to get himself drafted is also technically ahead of a player in the AHL who's seen a few setbacks (i.e. potential career AHL player). It's the boom/bust tightrope, and you can fall off at any time, no matter how much rope you've walked.

Will unfairly punish:
Players who experience a bad season in the Juniors or Minors.
Players from the 3rd Round or later (traditionally a longer journey to the NHL) who don't impress.

Will unfairly reward:
Newly drafted players who have yet to experience adversity in the development process.
Players who experience an anomalously good season in the Juniors or Minors.

2. Relationship with the Ducks Organization:
This turns out to be really important on my list. I am forced to show preference to the players that Anaheim calls up because the likelihood of them wearing a Ducks uniform is logically superior to the rest of the pool (and because the organization obviously knows the player much better than I do). A call-up and a modicum of skill will usually force my hand. Ideally, I ask myself, what does management think of the player? What do the coaches think of the player? Is his position/skillset redundant on the current squad and in the current prospect pool? Or is there a void that he will need to fill in the near future?

Will unfairly punish:
Redundant players.
Unsigned players.
Unsigned late Round draftees.
Players left in the minors for contract reasons.

Will unfairly reward:
Players called up for a final cup of coffee.
First and Second Round draftees.
Players signed by the organization.
Players called up for need, not skill.
Players hyped by management.

3. Skill:
Skill and its translation to a higher level of play are nearly impossible to evaluate accurately, even for the professionals. It's certainly above my paygrade as an armchair scout. Generally, I'll be conservative here: evaluate the toolkit and forgive very little in terms of flaws and shortcomings.

Will unfairly punish:
Overseas players I've never seen who aren't covered.
Players from leagues and systems I cannot evaluate effectively.
Players in the NCAA whom I feel comfortable evaluating at length.
Non-skill Major Junior players who performed poorly in the games I've seen.

Will unfairly reward:
Overseas players I've never seen who are overhyped.
Players in the NCAA whom I feel comfortable evaluating at length.
Non-skill Major Junior players who performed well in the games I've seen.


On a final note, I do my best with this list. It's a work in progress. I feel it's held up pretty well through Training Camp. Beleskey took a step backward, certain junior players like Warg took a step forward, but Camp is a short while and these players have until December (when I next update my list) to keep walking the boom/bust tightrope.

This was Anaheim calling to the hockey world...

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Young Guns

ARTHUR:
Anaheim calling to the hockey world...

Ducks Rookie Camp opened Saturday with practice at Anaheim Ice. The session produced one shoving match (Sbisa took exception to a slash by Sharp, who took exception to a pancake check by Sbisa), one potential injury (Macenauer stepped gingerly for the second half of the day) and a cameo by a convalescing Ryan Getzlaf-- the Sasquatchewan looked strong out there.

There were a handful of tryouts: Dustin Sylvester (Kootenay Ice), Guillaume Goulet (Baie-Comeau), Mike Stuart (Brown University) and Matthew Konan (Medicine Hat). And there were a handful of standouts, namely Luca Sbisa, who flew head and shoulders above most of the rookie squad. But there were more than a handful of disappointments.

Daniel, which player (excluding Sbisa) has the best chance of making the Ducks roster, which player surprised you the most, which player disappointed you the most and what were your general impressions yesterday?

DANIEL:
Of all the players we saw yesterday, Deschamps impressed me the most, but I think Bickel has the best shot of making the team. I mean, Deschamps showed some great playmaking ability, buried some good shots, was solid along the boards and he looked like he'd be comfortable setting up Lupul, spreading our scoring around three lines, instead of a ridiculously deadly two. But I think Bickel has the best shot to make the team, simply because he was the best blueliner there not named Sbisa. Signing Eminger, to me, means that our 3 pairings are practically sewn up and that Murray wants to retool the blue line completely. Bickel didn't impress with his skating, but his shot was getting through and he only got turned around once or twice. Mitera, on the other hand, was a mess. So, if something happens,and the Ducks need to plug a blue line hole, then look to Bickel to make his way to the NHL.

The player that surprised me the most was Maxime Macenauer. That kid was picking corners with his shot, even after getting hurt. His skating might not be the strongest, and he made some bad passes, but he can shoot. It was an unexpected joy, and I hope he develops into a strong player for us.

Finally, my biggest disappointment was Peter Holland. He didn't look like a power forward. Sbisa handled him in front of the net, and he was constantly looking for space, rather than fighting his way to the net. He buried a couple of shots, but he missed a lot more. Holland didn't show me anything to make me think he should have been our First Round pick this year.

Overall, I was impressed with our stock of prospects. I was worried that our general lack of an amazing prospect would be a reflection of our entire system. However, having seen the likes of Sexton, Deschamps, Sharp, Bickel, Sbisa and others, I believe Anaheim will have the tools to fill the inevitable gaps next offseason.

ARTHUR:
I have to agree on Holland. He was having a bad day, and it showed, as he kept coming back to the boards shaking his head. But his performance in the drills had me shaking MY head, particularly when the forwards had to bring the puck out of the corner against a defenseman. Holland came off the boards and couldn't get one stride closer to the goalmouth. In fact, he tried to find space by skating directly away from the net, which Sbisa was perfectly happy to let him do. It was as though Holland didn't understand the exercise. And when the coaches gave him a second chance, he was forced to ignore the puck and just push his body into the slot to prove he wasn't afraid to mix it up. I've accused him of being a perimeter player before, but this was ridiculous. Sylvester and Sexton (both around six inches shorter) outperformed him on that drill.

I was most surprised by Bickel. I had thought Mitera and Clark would force him into the background, but (other than falling down inexplicably in the opening seconds) he looked solid out there. In the skating drills, he still had his nimble choppy steps. On the rush drills, he moved the puck and managed the forwards well. He even threw his body around during the low-contact portion of practice. He just looked comfortable out there.

As far as who I think could make the team, I have to say that MacGregor Sharp will make a bid for the Bottom Six. He was moving to the net effectively, sniffing out the puck and even passing well. I see him leaping over Beleskey for consideration this year, but I'm not sure if either of them will crack the lineup.

Generally, these players stood out to me:

Positive
Nicolas Deschamps - He saucered a couple of passes that looked like they were traveling by pneumatic tube.

Matt Clark - He is ALWAYS reading the play. He was even watching puckhandlers while waiting in line for a drill.

Dan Sexton - He moves to the rough areas quickly and had the best breakaway goal of the day, splitting the defenders in the slot before converting a backhand.

Maxime Macenauer - He put a great shot on display, but he was wincing halfway through, shut down before he could really get going.

Negative
Mark Mitera - He looked rusty, and he got burned pretty bad after giving Deschamps the boards.

Timo Pielmeier - He couldn't seem to close the hole between his arm and body.

Logan MacMillan - He really seemed to be struggling with his shot and his passing.

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Top 20 Prospects: Preseason 2009

[Note: Rubric for this list available here].

ARTHUR:
Anaheim calling to the hockey world...

Not too long ago, Sleek e-mailed me about the prospect of ranking our prospects, an undertaking suggested by rob of Anaheim Ducks Universe. I was initially hesitant. Despite being an armchair scout, I'm a lifelong NCAA hockey fan and as biased as the day is long. Then I realized that shameless NCAA homer-ism is underrepresented in the scouting community, and I'd be doing college hockey a disservice not to overhype its players.

In all seriousness, I will occasionally give preference to players I have seen (I Slingbox FSN North and catch every college game on ESPNU) and followed for the entire year, I will watch at least one game for every Major Junior player (via streaming or television but NEVER through YouTube clips) and I will try to rank overseas players unsuccessfully (but to the best of my ability) through scouting reports and the limited available coverage. Oh, and I will not shamelessly repeat something that I read on the HF Boards as if it were cardinal fact (though I may cite it, skeptically).

I hope to make a list three times a year. Here's the first one:

Introduction
Please compare this list to rob's list and the Hockey's Future list.

The prospects are ranked in order of their likelihood of reaching the NHL level (minus the bias of your average scout, who assumes that success in NCAA competition is not indicative of NHL talent). This means that, unless he's a 'sure thing,' I will occasionally place a skill player behind a role player or grinder who is further along in the development process or has a better chance of making the team when he fully develops.

Going into training camp, the following players have been omitted as NHL-level assets: Luca Sbisa, Brett Festerling and Brendan Mikkelson. Based on their number of games played last season, a full season in the minor leagues would be a step backwards in their development (though such a backward step is not out of the question). Thus, I categorize them as 'teammate or trade bait' for the upcoming year.

1. Jake Gardiner
Gardiner is a breathtaking skater with a great shot, a toolkit shared by two of his Badger teammates in 2008-09, the premier pairing of Jamie McBain and Ryan McDonagh. For now, Gardiner's game is closer to McDonagh's, a controlled style that emphasizes defense and offensive creativity, but only occasionally flashes the coast-to-coast brilliance of which he is capable.

This year, Gardiner will have the option (and the room) to transition into McBain's WCHA MVP award-winning role of the dominant freewheeling team leader. If Gardiner can make that move, he will remain the Ducks' undisputed top prospect. If he continues as a McDonagh-type, he may turn pro without a scoring touch that can translate to the NHL, despite having played at forward as recently as 30 months ago.


2. Mark Mitera
Like Gardiner, Mitera joined a corps of impressive D prospects (Matt Hunwick and Jack Johnson) when he first donned the maize and blue, but with the departure of Hunwick, the Michigan captain, Mitera took the reins of the blueliners. And in the 2007-08 season, the rearguard posted a plus-30 and 21 assists, earning him the INCH Defenseman of the Year honor. The performance also earned him the Wolverines captaincy last season, a post he served for all of 19 minutes before tearing his anterior cruciate ligament.

He returned in late February, finding the strong skating, positioning and physicality that define his game. It would have been nice to see him play some more, but he and his teammates could not close out Air Force in the opening game of the NCAA tournament. Mitera will make a hard push to get into the Ducks roster at camp after playing a handful of games with the CHOPS last season. Even with no offense to offer (his career high in shots is 61; career high in goals is 2), Mitera's smart and solid shutdown game may be enough to impress the coaches.


3. Nick Bonino
When the game, the season, the tournament or the pride of New England hockey was on the line, Nick Bonino came through for Boston University. Second in team scoring only to top-flight prospect Colin Wilson during the season, Bonino was named MVP of the Beanpot, he (along with a reinvigorated Brandon Yip) produced the offensive chances that carried the team through the NCAA tournament, he drew the penalty that sent the Terriers to the Frozen Four and in the miracle last minute comeback in the championship game, Bonino was good for an assist and the game-tying goal.

A breakout season and an '88 birth year made this a good time for him to go pro (and he would have with San Jose), but a full lineup and a questionable AHL situation will keep Bonino in Boston. The Terriers will ask for a consistent sequel to last year's performance, and Bonino will have the opportunity to prove he can be just as offensively tenacious without a player as hungry as Yip on his flank.


4. Matt Beleskey
Belleville coach George Burnett once described Beleskey as the sort of player that could deliver the fight, the block, the big hit or the goal whenever the team needed it. Beleskey followed up that versatile leadership with an impressive final year with the Bulls in 2007-08, leading the team in scoring during the regular season (41+49=90) and playoffs (12+21=33).

He was the CHOPS fifth highest producer last season, despite an injury-shortened year, but Beleskey projects as a Bottom Six forward who will likely be kept out of the Ducks lineup by the skating ability of Mike Brown and Evgeny Artyukhin and the NHL experience of Ryan Carter. His current contract expires in 2010-11, and barring a rash of re-signings, that will be his best opportunity to make the team.


5. Kyle Palmieri
I'm uneasy placing a 5'10" 1991 kid in my Top 5. And yet, three things force me to rank him ahead of players who are further along in the development process:

First, he will be the best player joining the CCHA this season i.e. he'll be challenged by rival players/coaches and covered by Notre Dame to the point that I'll have an idea of where he is by mid-season, which is much faster than I will figure out what happened to Mattias Modig.

Second, he has yet to do anything to contradict the gushing scouting reports. He was just as strong as they said and his offensive chops continue to impress.

Third, as a small but strong and surprisingly skilled player, it will be easier for him to outperform expectations than it will for a Logan MacMillan or Peter Holland.


6. Peter Holland
My opinion on Holland hasn't changed much since the profile I wrote after the draft. Having only seen a couple of full games, I cannot comment on his mental consistency, but from those two games and the plethora of highlights available on the Guelph Storm website, I have to note that he enjoys having room to operate. In the pros, and especially in the NHL's Western Conference, he won't have that kind of room, even on the power play. Thus, I am not as confident in the translation of Holland's offensive game as I am about the forwards I rank above him. However, I should note that I would rank him much higher if I expected him to be a Bottom Six center, as he is incredibly sound defensively.


7. Nicolas Deschamps
Deschamps has speed, hands and vision, which increase exponentially in the offensive zone. As the only speedster and pure scorer in the prospect pool, he will benefit most from the likely departure/retirement of the Wonder Finns next year. Those would be the ideal conditions for his graduation, as he doesn't project to impress in the Bottom Six.

The Ducks may ask him to work on his defensive game in the AHL, but even if that comes to nothing, Deschamps would be a great scorer and playmaker on the left wing, not to mention a faceoff option. He should get a legitimate shot in 2010-11 unless Anaheim restocks the Top Six through free agency.


8. Logan MacMillan
When Halfiax named MacMillan their best defensive forward in 2007, the same season his linemate Jakub Voracek won the QMJHL's Michel Bergeron award (Top Offensive Rookie), the club may have been sending the not-so-subtle message that MacMillan wasn't the productive dynamo his numbers might suggest. Two years later, he found himself on the checking line of Rimouski Oceanic.

Of all the Ducks prospects, the AHL situation will hurt MacMillan the most. After his pinballed development, peppered with injuries and mixed responsibilities, he should be spending his first season determining his position in the Ducks system i.e. Top or Bottom Six. But such information won't be forthcoming in San Antonio. With any luck, he'll be back on track in 2010-11, at least as a quality shutdown winger.


9. Justin Schultz
Willy Wonka is to candy as Mark Osiecki is to defensemen. The Badgers assistant coach is making a sunrise and sprinkling it with dew all over the Wisconsin blueline. And his latest confection will be lanky BCHL standout Justin Schultz. The Interior Conference's Top Defenceman for 2008-09 was hyped before the Ducks drafted him, and his 15G and 35A last season only confirmed the hopeful praise. As with other offensive defenseman (our own Jake Gardiner included), we can rely on Osiecki to improve what is already there without asking the player to take anything away.


10. MacGregor Sharp
No one finished their NCAA career as well as MacGregor Sharp last season (well, unless they were wearing a Terriers jersey). In two tournaments, he went from undrafted senior to sought-after free agent. And while I cannot be absolutely confident his all-situation play for Minnesota-Duluth will translate to the NHL, I am sure he can be the hungry puckhound sniffing around the net, scoring the occasional Kunitz-ian goal, a contribution the Ducks have sorely missed.


11. Dan Sexton
David McNab is quite keen on Sexton, and really, so am I. But he's small. In all likelihood, he'll play out both years of his current pro contract in the AHL, building muscle commensurate with his courage and proving he has some special teams value at the professional level. A check mark next to both tasks and Sexton will be another fine NCAA free agent addition to the Ducks organization.


12. Timo Pielmeier
Early in the Q playoffs, Pielmeier led all goaltenders in GAA, but he finished with a 2.76 and a .898 save percentage. This was after a solid season for the Cataractes that saw Pielmeier post 30 wins in 43GPI with a 2.67 GAA, a .913 save percentage and 2 shutouts.

The Sharks signed him into 2010-11, and Pielmeier should get a shot at the pros before then. He is noted for quick reflexes, especially down low, and the ability to make the athletic save.


13. Matt Clark
He can play the body, and could dominate if that translates to the NHL. Still, the best part about Clark is the speed with which he may transition to the pros. Already NHL size and 19 years old, he may find himself in the AHL in 2010-11.


14. Justin Pogge
I place Pogge ahead of Modig for two reasons: one, I know more about Pogge, and two, he is, like it or not, Anaheim's third goaltender. With three years of ultimately unsuccessful netminding for the Toronto Marlies, most of his remaining development should be mental, and if he makes the most of a fresh start, he will secure himself a position as Anaheim's next backup.


15. Mattias Modig
I really don't know what happened to Mattias Modig. I've never seen him play for Luleå. I DO know that he followed career lows in Eliterstein (13 GPI, 3.53 GAA, .873 Sv Pct, 281 of 322 shots saved) in 2007-08 with career highs (2.25 GAA, .922 Sv Pct, 1011 of 1096 shots saved) last year. He had a bout of inconsistency much earlier in his development, but this valley and peak will surely affect his transition to North America.


16. Igor Bobkov
I wasn't sure about this pick after the Draft, especially with Roy and Hackett still on the board. Now, I'm more worried about Pete Peeters developing a netminder this raw, though the goaltending consultant was once a standup goalie himself and was developing two rather mammoth backstops in Edmonton when he left the organization. Bobkov remains a large question mark, but the size of that question mark is encouraging.


17. Brian Salcido
Despite spending three full and productive years (9th, 4th and 2nd in scoring respectively) in Anaheim's AHL system, Brian Salcido received a rather abbreviated shot at the Majors last season (2 games), especially when compared with Mikkelson (34 games) and Festerling (40 games).

The Ducks renewed Salcido for one-year at 550K (also renewing Festerling, but for two years), which seems to indicate that this is the year that they decide if there is more to Salcido than the novelty of being the first southern California born and bred NHL player.


18. Stu Bickel
Bickel is a smart and hard-nosed defender, who left after his Freshman season with the Golden Gophers. At the time, many (including your blogger) had him pegged as a future leader on the Minnesota squad, but the Ducks lured him away with a hefty contract. Maybe too hefty, it turns out. Bickel's 1.375M cap hit accounts for .125M less than Nick Boynton will take home this season. The prohibitive cap number and an injury riddled pro campaign make it tough for Bickel to compete for a blueline job this year, though he'll certainly try. His defensive punch (often literally) and expiring contract will get him a serious look in 2010-11.

Bickel didn't see much playing time last season before going down to injury in November. In his first game back in February, he recorded his first and only professional point and showed much of the grit that got him signed in the first place. He needs a strong season to leap over the Ducks developmental logjam at rearguard or to impress the other teams' pro scouts as the Ducks determine their ultimate course of action in a post-Scott-Niedermayer era.


19. Sami Vatanen
At the combine, Vatanen was the champion of the V02 Max Wingate and the Curlups, and but for his size (5'9" 160 lbs), he would have been a second round selection.


20. Justin Vaive
No, seriously, wait. Come back. Hear me out. The dude is 6'6". Does he have Penner's hands? No. Does he have Artyukhin's skating? No. But he's 6'6". Don't tell me you can't work with that.

Honestly, though, the Ducks prospect pool isn't really 20 players deep. The last slot is a bit of a toss up. And Vaive has found a comfy role in a great program in Miami. He plays physical, he can use the boards and he potted six goals on a .152 shooting percentage, the best on the team. They'll give him a once-over for the fourth line in a couple of years, just on principle.

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Penalty Kill: Vatanen, Illo and Valentine

ARTHUR:
Anaheim calling to the hockey world...

This final profile concludes our coverage of the Ducks' 2009 Entry Draft Class.

The Ducks certainly journeyed out of North America this year, and for the first time in 8 years, refrained from selecting a player from The Q. They took a chance at virtually every stage of the Draft, and could just as likely end up with four to five NHLers as they could zero.


Round 4 - 106th Overall

Sami Vatanen D
According to The OC Register, Martin Madden called Vatanen a "home-run or a strike-out type of pick" due to the rearguard's diminutive stature. And at 5'9" 160 lbs, he isn't kidding.

Like Bobkov, whom the Ducks picked before him, Vatanen made an impression at the IIHF U18 World Championships. As the captain of Team Finland, he registered 5 points (0 G) in a six-game march to a Bronze Medal. The pint-sized blueliner finished with a +6 rating, but that number is slightly skewed by a +5 nothced in a 7-0 rout of Slovakia during the Preliminary Round.

It was the young Finn's performance in the Bronze Medal game, however, that left most scouts gushing his praises. Down 4-3 to Canada in the 3rd, Vatanen showcased his playmaking and power play quarterbacking ability, as Finland went 2 for 3 with the man-advantage in the final frame. Vatanen assisted both goals.

Upside?
-Size is his ONLY issue. A skillful passer, skater and playmaker, if he were a few inches taller, he might have gone in the 2nd Round.

-Room to Grow. At the Combine Fitness Testing, Vatanen was the Top Performer on the Wingate. He also did the most curl-ups. Clearly gifted physically, Vatanen still has room to get beefier, if not taller.

Downside?
-The Ducks took a chance on a pint-sized power play quarterback with Marc-Andre Bergeron. Assuming Carlyle is still coach when Vatanen gets a shot at the NHL (which is no small assumption), it may be hard for him to play effectively in his own zone.


Round 5 - 136th Overall

Radoslav Illo C
A center for the USHL's Tri-City Storm, Illo was sidelined by a shoulder injury at the beginning of the season. He came back to score 33 points (21 G), including 8 power play goals and 3 power play assists. He finished the season 2nd in shooting percentage amongst his fellow Storm.

Martin Madden broke down the pick for J.P. Hoornstra, saying of Illo, "He's an outstanding skater with great shot. He's not a physical player, he's a skilled player who goes to the hard areas."

Upside?
-Potential Steal. He was injured early in the scouting cycle, and if his late performance is indicative of his abilities, the Ducks will have a steal on their hands.

Downside?
-Raw Talent. Illo played a short season on a bad team in a league that doesn't get much respect for its level of competition. He may bust at the next level.


Round 6 - 166th Overall

Scott Valentine D
Valentine was the defenseman involved in the multi-player deal that sent John Tavares to the Knights. For London, the 6'2" 195 lb blueliner battled for ice time, producing 0 points and 20 PIM in 17 games. He took on a bigger role with Oshawa, and managed a goal and 8 assists in 26 games for the Generals. He plays an aggressive game, and has the skating ability and physical presence to back it up.

Upside?
-Promotion to General. If this season is any indication, Valentine will flourish even further with the playing time he gets in Oshawa. He'll play in all situations, and get a chance to develop every part of his game.

Downside?
-None. Valentine is a great value in the 6th Round. He may not develop offense, but how many 6th Round defenseman will? He may not make the NHL, but how many 6th Round defenseman will?

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Penalty Kill: Matt Clark and Igor Bobkov

ARTHUR:
Anaheim calling to the hockey world...

We continue our draft coverage of the Ducks' 2009 Draft Class with a profile of Round 2 selection Matt Clark and Round 3 selection Igor Bobkov.


Round 2 - 37th Overall

Matt Clark D
Utilizing the Columbus pick they obtained by trading down from 21, the Ducks selected Matt Clark of the Brampton Battalion, arguably the best defensive defenseman available in the 2nd Round.

The young rearguard battled his way up the Troops' depth chart this season. Not an easy task for a rookie playing for the best team in the OHL's Eastern Conference. The 6'3" 210 lb. blueliner is committed to refining his game by getting more mobile and more confident with his physical play. Unfortunately, his offensive skills are still largely a question mark.

Upside?
-Still gaining confidence, Clark may jump into more plays and find an offensive game next season.

-Glove Dropper. While not always successful, Clark has shown an affinity for scrapping. His 1.76 PIM/G in this year's playoffs was quite impressive, especially when you consider the OHL's reduced physicality.

-Battle Tested. Clark has faced some great forwards in the OHL and held his own.

Downside?
-His much touted +21 is a little deceiving. While he's put up an impressive plus/minus for a rookie, it should be noted that he finished the season with 3 G and 20 A. Fellow Brampton blueliner Brad Albert, who also posted a +21, finished the season with four fewer points.

-If he never finds his offensive game, and doesn't find the confidence to really dominate, he will plateau as a 2nd pairing stay-at-home player that may be overvalued at 37th overall.


Round 3 - 76th Overall

Igor Bobkov G
As the 3rd Round opened, only two goaltenders had been selected: Robin Lehner and Anders Nilsson. This left the Ducks with their pick of the litter, specifically Matthew Hackett (ranked 1st by Central Scouting amongst North American goaltenders). Anaheim opted for Igor Babkov (ranked 10th by CS amongst International netminders).

Bobkov turned in a lights-out performance at this year's IIHF World U18 Championship. His stats tell most of the tale, but he really turned heads when the Playoff Round began. In the Quarterfinal and Semifinal Rounds, against Sweden and Finland respectively, Bobkov allowed one goal on 96 shots. The 6'4" 190 lb netminder was a brick wall with eyes, but fell short in the Gold Medal game.

Bobkov plays a stand-up style, maximizing his absurdly large frame. He has a quick glove, but little to no mastery of the key elements of the butterfly technique.

Upside?
-Bobkov Big. Each of Bobkov's legs is the size of Darren Pang. While he doesn't go down often, he can potentially shut down the lower-third of the net with little, if any, lateral movement.

-Natural Ability. Bobkov is a raw talent with the potential to improve as his technique develops.

Downside?
-Stand-up Style. Bill Ranford was the league's last stand-up goaltender, and it's unlikely that a pure stand-up goaltender can still be dominant (or even effective) in today's game. Bobkov will have to learn a lot of basics.

-Big Project. Were Allaire still in Anaheim, he might have seen developing Bobkov as an unclimbable mountain, even 2-3 years down the line. The young Russian will have to find a hybrid style that can translate to the NHL, or he may never even get to the AHL.

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Penalty Kill: Kyle Palmieri

ARTHUR:
Anaheim calling to the hockey world...

"The Anaheim Ducks are proud to select, from the US National Development Team, forward Kyle Palmieri"

I suppose it would have been awkward for Martin Madden to say, "formerly of the US National Development Team," though I'm sure at least a few people were thinking it. Palmieri's off-ice trouble has become quite the melodrama. Officially, he was dismissed for violating team rules. Unofficially, a variety of tales have emerged, though none overwhelmingly trustworthy. Some paint Palmieri as a participant in the rule-breaking, some as an implicated party who refused to name the actual violators. The only certainty is that Palmieri missed an opportunity with the National Development Team, and must make the most of his time at Notre Dame, where he is committed in the Fall or Guelph of the OHL, who drafted him last year.

The Ducks are clearly unfazed by Palmieri's past. It seems the 5'10" 190 lb. center was their man late in the 1st round. When Anaheim was set to pick at 21, the best players that had slipped to 15 (Moore and Schroeder) were still available, but the Ducks again opted to pass on the pair, trading down to select Palmieri (at 26th) and Matt Clark (at 37th). Palmieri is only two inches taller than Schroeder (whose height sent him into draft board free fall) and Matt Clark, while highly regarded, lacks much (if not all) of John Moore's upside. The Ducks passed on a "bird in the hand" at 21 to go for "two in the bush." The odds are against a late 1st Rounder and a 2nd Rounder equaling the potential of a player projected 11-14th overall, but only time will tell.

Anaheim gets an interesting gamble in Palmieri. The young forward was arguably the most physically developed participant in the Fitness Testing at this year's Combine, and the scouts remain high on his quick skating, his banging play and his great hands in tight. Palmieri's toolbox, playing style and stature have garnered comparisons to Zach Parise, and that is certainly the potential plateau for his development. To get there, he needs to develop his hockey sense, and learn to use his quick moves and size to his advantage, rather than getting knocked down from play to play by the larger competition.

If his offense can't mature with the NCAA and then AHL competition, Palmieri could quickly become a third or fourth line grinder with the ability to make the ordinary plays extraordinarily well. That's still valuable, though perhaps a bit expensive at the end of the 1st Round.

Upside?
-Depending on which rumor you choose, Palmieri may have sacrificed his spot on the Development Team to protect his teammates. That would make him a strong character player. The alternative rumor, perhaps, just makes him appropriately mature for his age.

-Hard-working competitor. He may not have the skill set that Holland has, but he displays determination on the ice, which may make him the safer bet of the Ducks two 1st Round picks.

-Strength and quickness. Parise has shown how dangerous this particular combination can be. Despite his size, Palmieri has one of the more desirable upsides of any player in the Ducks' prospect pool.

Downside?
-Again, depending on which rumor you choose to believe, Palmieri may be prone to immature behavior.

-If he ends up a third line grinder, Palmieri and Clark may be a poorly conceived alternative to Moore or Schroeder.

-Size. Despite his strength, Palmieri's size can become an issue, especially joining a prospect pool where he can look very few players in the eye. He may have an uphill climb getting out of the minors.

Read more...

Penalty Kill: Peter Holland

ARTHUR:
Anaheim calling to the hockey world...

Two surprise picks in the Top 15: The Islanders traded UP (?) to be certain they could pick Calvin De Haan (a playmate familiar to Tavares) and the Ducks picked Peter Holland at 15th. Were the Draft held in March, both picks would have been timely, but after months of shifting Draft boards, the picks drew the appropriate gasps.

I should say that calling this pick a "mistake" ignores the scouting and interview work that Murray, Madden and their staffs have done over the past few months. However, with Moore and Schroeder still available, this was NOT the prudent "best player available" pick from the perspective of outside observers.

As a gauge of Holland's stock going into the draft, consider that he was a 2nd Round player on The Hockey News Mock Draft, and was picked 27th in the Hockey's Future Mock Draft.

So, who is Peter Holland?



In his rookie season with the Guelph Storm, Holland turned in a quiet effort of 8 G and 15 A, but he took on a larger role this year, and with it, a larger share of the scouting spotlight. His 28 G and 39 A were second only to Matt Kennedy in terms of point production for the Storm. But a slowed pace after a quick start led to the emergence of an oft misquoted characterization of Holland having a "lackadaisical attitude." The actual quote, from a THN article, compared the perception of his passive play as "lackadaisical" to an equally valid perception that his play was "analytical" and thought-out. Regardless of how you might choose to perceive these lapses in intensity, Holland has now been branded with the criticism of "inconsistent," as evidenced by this evaluation from Chris Edwards of NHL Central Scouting:

"When he is competing, he is very noticeable and effective. He is used both on the power-play and penalty-kill units, and at times he has been used at the point on the power-play. He skates very well, smooth, and he generates good speed. He has a very good shot." [emphasis added]

Holland seems aware of the perception. When describing his performance of late, the 18-year old was quick to point to the pressures of being a young leader on his team and the nervousness of knowing the scouts were watching him, factors that could certainly contribute to his inconsistency. Ultimately, whether you choose to paint his style of play as "thinking-man's-hockey" or "taking-shifts-off," the young center may lack the competitive drive to battle at the potential of his 6'2" 185 lb. size.

Upside?
- Good skater. Agile and nimble for his size.
- Incredible hockey sense that makes him a valuable player on the Kill AND Man-advantage.

Downside?
- Inconsistency. It's a question mark that has hung over everyone from Stanislav Chistov to Ryan Getzlaf.
- He may be a perimeter player faking a Power Forward style.
- "Bust" risk is high when you consider that the best players available were both consistent producers, and smart on both sides of the puck.

Read more...

Penalty Kill: Dan Sexton

10/31/09 Update available here.

ARTHUR:
Anaheim calling to the hockey world...

You may have missed this acquisition, but the Ducks signed Bowling Green RW Dan Sexton to a two-year entry-level contract at $500K (NHL salary) per season with a $150K signing bonus. His fee at the AHL level will be $50K and $55K for the two years, respectively.* I've been following this kid since November, and I must say that I'm EXTREMELY surprised he's ended up with the Ducks. Let's take a look at Dan Sexton.

Every blogger and their mother (sorry, Adam Brady) will give you the stat line - 38 games with 17G 22A, and there's no doubt that Sexton had a breakout season this year-- he's a gifted attacker, but that's not the line that worries me. It's this one - 5'9" 166lbs. The Ducks have been down this road before with Ryan Shannon. Out of Boston College, Shannon was a smooth passer with 20/20 hockey vision. He was brought along slowly, allowed to play out his time in Hockey East then dominate the AHL. He was even welcomed onto the Stanley Cup team. But his size sealed his fate. Frequently separated from the puck and taken out of plays, Shannon could not use his diminutive height to draw sympathy from the refs, as he was playing for the most physical team in hockey. He couldn't find his game while being bounced around the ice, and he was bounced around the league until Bryan Murray could maneuver a second chance for him in Ottawa. McNab has yet to convince me that Sexton's future in Anaheim is much brighter.

In 2007, the trio of Dan Sexton, Patrick Tiesling and David Soloway led the Sioux Falls Stampede to the USHL's Tier I Championship, the Clark Cup. Tiesling and Soloway committed to Bowling Green, while Sexton continued to weigh his options, which included Denver, St. Cloud State and Alaska. He eventually committed to an East Coast school, but Tiesling convinced him to de-commit and join his old teammates with the Falcons.

That 07-08 team finished 18-21, but the rookie lines were impressive. And with players like 5'7" Jacob Cepis, Bowling Green seemed to be the right fit for Sexton, as the team was committed to growing small forwards with skill, speed and courage to match up against the CCHA's physically dominant teams. Sexton showed great two-way sense in his freshman season as a mainstay on both the power play and penalty kill, potting 3 shorthanded goals.

In their sophomore season, Sexton and Soloway were joined by senior Brandon Svendson to form the Falcons' "Axe Line." Soloway and Svendson already played on the same PK unit, but Coach Paluch was reluctant to put Sexton and Svendson on the same even strength line as neither had ever played Left Wing. However, in practice, Svendson found he enjoyed the left side, and the trio went on to post 93 points. The line was known for its passing, creativity and the talent level requisite of three players who were dangerous on the penalty kill. Sexton improved his speed and offensive vision during the course of the season, finishing as the seventh best forward in the conference, just one spot out of the First and Second All-CCHA teams.

The Axe Line made noise amongst the NHL scouts, though they were unable to save Bowling Green's win/loss record. The Falcons would play another losing season, intensifying the rumors of the impending demise of the BG hockey program and making it likely that Sexton would be poached at the end of the year.

In January, David McNab made the trip to see Bowling Green play Ohio State, and was immediately impressed by Sexton, who had 2G and 2A in the series. The Ducks' Senior VP maintained regular phone contact with the prospect, attended another Falcons series and followed four televised games before making the decision to sign him. McNab noted Sexton's tremendous offensive talent, but was quick to point out how hard he battled, something vital to succeeding as a small forward at the professional level. He placed the right wing's NHL transition as still a couple of years away, and the kid agrees that he needs to improve his size and strength, starting this summer.

It's not that I'm fond of the Ducks' unofficial rookie height/weight restriction. I don't think every kid should have to be a Ryan Getzlaf Sasquatchewan of a human being to survive in Anaheim, but Sexton has an uphill climb ahead of him. Even if he comes in at the right size and speed, we will still expect him to protect himself and stay cool headed if he gets targeted by another team, which troubled McDonald (and now Ebbett). Of course, unlike Shannon, Sexton has undeniable defensive value, and may be capable of replicating Todd Marchant's recent game-- sound defensive small forward hockey with the ability to cash-in on transition and turnovers on the forecheck. But whatever avenue he finds into Anaheim, it will be tough to stay there. I sincerely hope, both that he proves me wrong and that his talent is not wasted by trying to run with the Pampalona bulls that are the Ducks.

*UPDATED citation: figures taken from an article in Bowling Green Sentinel-Tribune by Andrew Weber, dated April 7th, 2009.

Read more...

Penalty Kill: MacGregor Sharp

10/31/09 Update available here.

ARTHUR:
Anaheim calling to the hockey world...

Some of you may have guessed from my previous posts that I keep my Slingbox in the Midwest to stream FSN North goodness into my home during the college hockey season. As such, I never miss a televised WCHA game.

When I heard that the Ducks signed Minnesota-Duluth center Macgregor Sharp, my response was a growling, "YEEEEEEESSSS!" instead of the recent Ducks fan standard, courtesy of Brian Hayward: "...*shrug* must be another McNab signing..." So, what is it about watching Sharp play over the past few years that has me so excited? Let's take a look at the story of MacGregor Sharp.

In many ways, the story of MacGregor Sharp is the story of Mason Raymond. The Alberta natives played together for four years, two years on the same junior hockey team and two years at Minnesota-Duluth. At both programs, the same pattern played out: Sharp and Raymond would post similar numbers in their first year together, only to have Raymond pull away as the superstar in the second year. Though identical in size and age, their styles were different: Mason, the speedster with great hands and MacGregor, the relentless grinding puckhound.

In 2005, Raymond won the AJHL MVP, which got him drafted by Vancouver in the second round. Sharp went unselected. In 2007, Raymond would win the UMD team MVP, which got him called up to the AHL. Sharp remained in the WCHA for his Junior and Senior years.

On March 19, in Vancouver, Mason Raymond scored his 19th major league goal, the 10th in his second season with the Canucks. He was living his NHL dream. Two-thousand miles away, in St. Paul, MacGregor Sharp was finally realizing his.

The WCHA plays a Final Five format where two teams play a wild card game, called the "Play-In," in order to qualify for the semi-finals. This year's Play-In pitted the Minnesota Golden Gophers against the Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs. Sharp was red-hot going into the tournament, having points in 10 of his last 11 games. But, if the purpose of finishing your college career is to develop your game, play on the national stage and show the scouts you can win, then Sharp appeared out of luck. The Bulldogs were on the bubble in the Pairwise Rankings, making a selection to the NCAA tournament doubtful. And while four Play-In winners had reached the WCHA title game since the advent of the Final Five format, none had ever won the tournament. But then...

Sharp followed up a shot on Gophers goaltender Alex Kangas, potting the rebound and knocking the flu-ridden Kangas out of the game. MacGregor opened scoring again the next night when he chased down a misplay by Sioux goalie Brad Eidsness, depositing the shorthanded puck in the net before the tender could return to his crease. Then, in the championship game, Sharp made a sweet pass on a 2-on-2 break on the power play, only to slide the return feed under Pioneers backstop Marc Cheverie. It was the first of Sharp's three goals that night, and the Bulldogs became the first Play-In winner to ever take the WCHA championship.

I'm sure, or I hope, many of you saw the first rounds of the NCAA tournament. A pass by Sharp set up the Miracle at Mariucci. And the center would score the only goal (and a couple of near goals) in the Bulldogs bid for the Frozen Four. I'm here to tell you that those are good indicators of his talent level.

His performance in both the WCHA and NCAA tournaments shows he's developed poise. He has great two-way hockey sense: a grinding backcheck, but equally skilled at sniffing out rebounds and anticipating bad plays. He can create relentless first man pressure, but he's also played a lot of time as the second forechecker. He plays a solid penalty kill, but his impressive passing and his ability to dangle on the halfboards made him an indispensible center on the best power play in the WCHA. If I had to pinpoint the part of his game that caught McNab's attention, I'd say it was his play in the NHL sized rink. The Final Five was played at Xcel Energy in St. Paul, and the smaller but longer zones seemed to benefit Sharp on both sides of the puck.

He's played four games in Iowa (currently at -4), where they are likely working on his faceoff game. He's much better at tying up his man than winning a clean draw, but his game in the circle should drastically improve with the minor adjustments of the Chops coaching staff. Expect to see him in the preseason.

Read more...

Penalty Kill: NCAA Tourney

ARTHUR:
Anaheim calling to the hockey world...

The NCAA tournament opened this weekend. If you haven't been glued to ESPN2, ESPNU and even the Notre Dame game on ESPNC then I'm sorry, but I just don't know what you're doing with your life. Anaheim had four prospects in the tournament. I thought we'd take a brief look .

JUSTIN VAIVE
Vaive isn't a featured forward for the Redhawks, but his size (6'6") could prove valuable in DC, so tune into the Frozen Four if you can.

Vaive took an undisciplined holding penalty against the Bulldogs that Mercier converted into a shorthanded goal. As good as Stalock was playing, I'm going to give Vaive an honorary assist on that one.

MARK MITERA and STEVEN KAMPFER
Kampfer has become more famous for his off ice injury and a vicious on ice hit than for his playing ability. Hopefully, he will stay for a senior year in Michigan to show he can still play hockey.

Michigan senior captain, Mitera spent most of the year holding a clipboard and a crutch after ACL reconstruction. He looked good coming back in late February, making only the occasional mistake. He didn't look great against Air Force, but none of the Wolverines really did. Expect to see Mitera in the upcoming preseason.

NICK BONINO
Against Ohio State, Bonino had a goal and two assists in a one-sided blowout, and in my opinion, Bonino and Yip have provided more energy and scoring chances for the Terriers this postseason than Wilson and the other forwards.

Today, this kid completely blew me away. A tenacious UNH team traded chances with BU for three periods, locked in a 1-1 tie. With under a minute to go, the Terriers established play in the UNH end. Bonino came streaking into the zone calling for the puck in the slot. He got it, and skated it forward into a gauntlet of blue jerseys. After two dekes, he was hauled down with 45 seconds to play, drawing the penalty that sent Boston to the Frozen Four. What more can I say about a kid, playing for the best team in college hockey, who wants the puck when the game is on the line...

Read more...

Penalty Kill: Jake Gardiner

Updated look at Gardiner (11/6/09) available here.

ARTHUR:
I'm shorthanded today, as Daniel is handling some offline business. That's bound to happen from time to time here at Anaheim Calling, life being what it is, but we've planned ahead for these scheduling emergencies with these solo "Penalty Kill" posts. For my part, I will try to use my PK posts to highlight players that are (or that I feel should be) in the Ducks organization.

With the Conference tourneys warming up in college hockey, I thought we should take a look at Jake Gardiner.


[Gardiner assists the first two goals in the video and pretty much scores the last one]

The Ducks traded down in the first round of the 2008 NHL Entry Draft, and picked 17th overall. They claimed 6'2" 175 lb. offensive-defenseman Jake Gardiner, who played all four years at Minnetonka High School in Minnesota, though only the last year on the blueline.

Gardiner now plays for the University of Wisconsin-Madison in college hockey's WCHA. In 35 games for the Badgers, Jake's posted 2G (both on the Power Play) and 16A on 58 shots. He's a breathtaking skater, who can lead a rush or make the smooth quarterback moves on the man-advantage, but his incredible on-ice awareness makes him much more valuable as a blueliner than he ever was as a forward.

The one 'knock' I can place on him, from the televised games this season, is that he needs to fill out physically. He's strong on his skates and he's a smart checker, but he'll need to show that he can physically dominate at the 200 lb. mark without sacrificing any of the quickness in his feet and hands.

Luckily, Gardiner has seen plenty of ice time with Junior defenseman and Hurricanes' property, Jamie McBain. The Badgers' Assistant Captain has a better pedigree than Gardiner, having played high school hockey at Shattuck-St. Mary's, and that shows in his conditioning. Jamie plays textbook offensive defense at 197lbs., and he was imposing his visage on the Hobey Baker picture until the last few games of the season. A testament to his leadership, he went scoreless in six games and the Badgers lost four of them. McBain has given Gardiner a look at an NHL-ready offensive defenseman, where Gardiner hopes to be in two years.

Wisconsin swept the Mankato Mavericks over the weekend to advance to the WCHA Final Five. The Badgers were, as usual, unstoppable at the Kohl Center, opening up a 2G 2nd period and a 5G 3rd period in the first game on Friday. Mankato pulled Zacharias in the 3rd, and Gardiner immediately found the net with a wicked wrister from the blueline that got behind relief goaltender Dan Tomey. Gardiner would tack on 2A (1EV, 1PP) during superfluous scoring on the way to a 7-1 victory.

The Ducks' prospect failed to show up on the scoreboard in the second game on Saturday, but he got a few clean shots on goal and made some timely defensive plays in a tight 4-2 victory. Read more...