Ar Tyu Happy?

ARTHUR:
Anaheim calling to the hockey world...

Daniel has been clamoring for a checking forward this offseason, insisting that if the Ducks did not re-sign Rob Niedermayer, they had to acquire a valuable checker in his place. Anaheim has since acquired Evgeny Artyukhin.

Daniel, with this acquisition, you would seem to have your checking line forward. Did you get what you wanted, and more importantly, did the Ducks get what they needed?

DANIEL:
I'd like to see an Ebbett-Marchant-Brown line, and maybe an Artyukhin-Carter-Parros line. I think Ryan Carter is a solid two-way guy who can drum up some offense while he's still doing the high intensity forecheck and cycle game we love to play. More importantly, the way Bob Murray described Artyukhin, I think he can generate the offense we want from a fourth line winger, while still being extraordinarily punishing on the boards. I'm just saying-- this guy and Parros together seems a little scary. I'm sure he'd be just as great bringing size to a line with Marchant and Brown, but I love the speed Ebbett would provide on that line. I just think a line with Ebbett, Marchant and Brown would be so fun to watch, not to mention really quick on the counterattack.

I really like this trade. Nothing against Drew Miller, but my opinions of him went sour when he failed to bury a couple of breakaways in the Detroit series. It's not that Miler was a bad player, just that he wasn't getting it done here for some reason. I think Artyukhin can fit on either of the bottom two lines and bring the extra size and grit we'll be losing with Robbie's departure. Yes, I think this closes the door on Rob Niedermayer's tenure in Anaheim, something I'm actually a little upset about, but this eases my concerns about a checking forward greatly. Only time will tell if Artyukhin has Robbie's Witnetka-like skills along the board, but once again, Murray has made a shrewd move that makes the team better without giving up a lot to do it.

ARTHUR:
So, wait. Based on that lineup, you don't think Nokelainen or Christensen make this team?

DANIEL:
Probably not.

ARTHUR:
I have to disagree there. I think Christensen's a quality passer coming in at 750K, and Nokelainen's new deal confirms that he's part of Anaheim's future plans.

That being said, I can't effectively project where the players will fall, and as far as I'm concerned, that's the best part of this new Ducks squad: Options. In the past two years, Carlyle's juggled what he had, trying to get every last bead of toothpaste out of the tube. Now, players are scratching to get into the lineup, to the point that we could have two effective shutdown lines in the Bottom Six or a third scoring line and an effective energy line. If your name isn't Niedermayer, Getzlaf, Perry, Selanne or Koivu, your job isn't safe. Someone will be breathing down your neck.

Artyukhin only adds to that beautiful uncertainty. He's played on the Top and Bottom Six of the Tampa depth chart. If he can't be a passenger, he'll need to be a shutdown player. If he can't be a shutdown player, he'll need to be an energy player. And if he can't be an energy player, he'll need to prove that he deserves to come off the scratch list every now and then. But wherever he ends up, he'll have to earn that spot, just like everyone else.

Read more...

Pogge Mo Thóin

DANIEL:
On August 10th, the Ducks officially announced the acquisition of Toronto goaltending prospect Justin Pogge in exchange for a conditional 6th Round pick in 2011, the condition being that if Pogge starts 30 or more regular season NHL games for Anaheim or a team he is traded to by Anaheim between 2009 and 2011, then Toronto will receive a 3rd Round pick in 2011. Pogge came up to the Leafs for the proverbial 'cup of coffee' this season and posted a 1-4-1 record with a 4.38 GAA and a .844 save percentage. Not impressive numbers, but then again, the Leafs weren't an impressive team last year.

Arthur, in our previous discussions of cost cutting moves, you've mentioned that moving Giguere is something the Ducks should consider. Is a deal like this going to pave the way for Jiggy's movement, or is Pogge not ready to spend a full year at the NHL level in the role of Hiller's backup?

ARTHUR:
Well, first, I think it's worth noting that Pogge hasn't performed well at the AHL level either, but when you compare him to the other goalies in the first two rounds of the 2004 Draft class (Al Montoya, for example), he's still running with the pack. None of them have broken through yet, and there is still hope for a handful of them.

The problem with forecasting the impact of this deal is that it seems to be more about Brian Burke than Bob Murray. This looks like what happened with Bryzgalov. Burke probably promised Pogge that the Leafs would move him into an organization where Pogge would see some ice time if and when Toronto signed the Monster. Right now, Anaheim ISN'T that organization. We have two starters and no AHL affiliate (and the AHL team/s that take our goaltenders will rarely-- if ever --play them). Brian Burke knows that, and I don't see how he could think that this move fulfills his promise to Pogge, that is, unless Murray has intimated that he will have room on the roster soon.

But that's an unnecessary leap in logic. As it stands, Pogge is going to have to stay sharp, work with Pete Peeters and wait for his time to come. If the right offer for Giguere comes along early in the season, then Pogge may have to battle to give us 25 games. But if Giguere doesn't get moved until the trade deadline, we'd only be asking Pogge for 6 games. The latter Pogge can do; the former I can't say.

What I can say is that I agree with David McNab on this one; we couldn't spend a season (especially this season) without a clear third goaltender in the prospect pool. This protects us against injury, and it makes it easier to move Giguere. But signing a seasoned backup may have been the better move here. As Ken Dryden once said, you need two goalies to win the Cup; the Ducks have three, which means they may not even have one.

DANIEL:
First, nice move quoting Ken Dryden. Second, I was pretty confused when I read about this trade. Every team has pretty much addressed their respective goaltending issues. I can't see a situation where a team would be willing to take on Giguere's salary. And Pogge, while not impressive in his AHL career, may still be only one good minor league season away from being a permanent resident of the NHL. There was a consensus that this kid would be a starting netminder eventually, and that might happen sooner rather than later. If it does, then Murray will have a situation like we had with Ryan last year, where everyone is wondering why Pogge is still in the AHL when he clearly has NHL level talent.

My other concern is Pogge's age. Even if it does take him a little longer to mature, we'll still have Jonas Hiller in his prime protecting the net. That means Pogge will have to wait even longer for his shot at the Number 1 job. At best, he'd be another Hiller and wouldn't be a starter until the age of 27 or 28, meaning he would lose a lot of good years riding the pine. He's already voiced, albeit very mildly, dissatisfaction with his playing situation in Toronto, and his prospects really haven't improved much here in Anaheim.

For me, this leaves only one conclusion, one that I very much approve of: Pogge is a stop-gap to give us an opportunity to raise our own goaltending prospects. This is the only way this trade makes sense to me. Pogge is here to be a backup for another year or two while we raise our own legitimate backup in whatever new AHL team we can find. Then when he's matured and proven he can be a Number 1, he'll be used as trade bait. Either way, I think this signals the end of Jiggy's time here in Anaheim. If it doesn't happen this year, it will definitely happen over the summer when his expiring contract is less intimidating.

Read more...

RFA-Hunting We Will Go

ARTHUR:
Anaheim calling to the hockey world...

Barring a Giguere trade or Rob Niedermayer signing, Anaheim's offseason activity has concluded. By shipping Chris Pronger to Philadelphia and signing a handful of key and affordable free agents, Bob Murray has rebuilt his playoff team at (or slightly over) budget. However, the General Manager has most impressed hockey analysts with the enviable position he has secured for his team NEXT season.

Anaheim has less than 30M committed to payroll for 2010-11, a year in which many anticipate the Salary Cap will decrease. Key players are signed and key players named Bobby Ryan will need to be re-signed, but (budget permitting) the Ducks will be buyers, both at the trade deadline and offseason, in a buyer's market.

Daniel, you and I have discussed, at length, the salary cap headache that awaits Chicago next June, but other teams will be struggling to balance the checkbook. Who are you hoping the Ducks will poach, and how do you see them doing it?

DANIEL:
First, let me start by saying this was a very difficult question to answer. I started with a short list to organize my thoughts, and it was ten players long. However, Chicago is in the most trouble, and they have the player that would be the best fit for us in Duncan Keith. He is the player the Ducks need to go after.

He's the closest thing I've seen to Scott Niedermayer. Keith skates like everyone else is standing still. He weaves through traffic, finds pockets in the defense, joins the rush and can get back on D. Watching replays of the CAL-CHI series on NHL Network makes me think he's a little turnover prone, but I'm sure Carlyle will teach him better habits and make him a stronger defender. He might even become Norris Trophy material. With Scotty's retirement imminent, it's time to start thinking about getting a Number 1 blueliner, and Keith could be it. He's going to want 5-6 million, and there's no way Chicago squeezes that when Toews and Kane will want the same money. They'd have to add almost $10 million more in salary to make it happen.

Ideally, we'd be able to trade for Keith during the season, so we can hold on to his rights and negotiate an extension. Bowman will have to trade someone on his team that's making $3 million in a stone cold salary dump. With the space we still have under the cap, we can take on one of those contracts. As a result, I see a trade a lot like the one you and I have been discussing, where Anaheim takes Keith and either a Byfuglien or Bolland in exchange for Wisniewski and an expiring RFA that can play depth like Drew Miller or Andrew Ebbett. Byfuglien is the top choice, since there's only one year left on his contract, but also because he'd look great camped out in front of the net, being force-fed by Perry and Getzlaf. He's Dustin Penner 2.0. Wisnieski showed last year that he can handle playoff pressure, so at least the Hawks get a capable defender with offensive upside who knows their system. It isn't a fair trade, but salary dumps rarely are. Chicago gets two expiring contracts without completely derailing their Cup aspirations-- after all Huet can do that on his own.

That trade makes the most sense. Especially because Murray is an old Chicago boy, and he should be there to lend a helping hand. I'm sorry, but Chicago isn't going to re-sign all three of these guys and be able to put a whole team on the ice. No one is going to take Huet or Campbell unless someone puts a gun to their head. If Chicago has to move someone, it should be Keith, because they still have Campbell, who is still really good, and Cam Barker. I'm not saying Keith's superfluous, just that they won't feel the pain as bad as losing Kane or worse, their Captain. If Murray can't convince Bowman that this trade is good, he might have to sweeten it with one of our extra First Round picks, but then there's always the off season. We can burn the extra First Round pick to sign Keith to an offer sheet if he makes it to July 1st. When Bowman realizes he doesn't have a choice, I'm sure he'll return Bob Murray's phone call.

ARTHUR:
I've been vocal about the possibility of acquiring Keith. Much more vocal than I was about Koivu. But I really think that Murph is the linchpin of this deal, not logic. His first trade deadline on the job for Anaheim, he reaches out to Chicago and his old Hawk teammate, Doug Wilson, in San Jose. Murray has clearly kept the respect of his friends through the years, and I have to believe that he still has friends at the United Center, even with Bowman officially in power.

But the logic really is overwhelming, here. Last time we talked about this, I told you that Bowman's best bet is to try what we did with Perry. If the Blackhawks can somehow hoodwink Toews into an affordable contract, they can present identical terms to Kane and guilt him into taking it, lest he ask for more money than the captain. But they can't play that game with Keith, who has to calculate that he's worth at least 5M when Barker is making 3M, Seabrook is making 3.5M and Campbell is making 7M. They can't ask him to take a one-year deal when Barker just got three. They have to find his 5M/yr. for 3 years or let him go. And the latter makes the most sense for a team that has four defensemen making 2.33M or more (not to mention one who takes home three times that much).

Byfuglien/Bolland and Keith for Wisniewski and Miller. I see it happening at the trade deadline, when the slight increase in salary will affect only a handful of game checks. If it doesn't happen, I don't see how Murray passes on the chance to offer sheet Keith, maybe with a tacit agreement it won't be matched.

Alternatively, I like the idea of getting Setoguchi and/or Pavelski. I like the idea of getting Lucic, too, but as much as Boston loves trading with Southern California, Chiarelli didn't play on the blueline with Bob Murray. Doug Wilson did. I see Murph talking him into this deal because Doug will be looking to re-sign Nabokov and replace Marleau next offseason. That and the 4.33M they're paying Michalek may put a strain on negotiations with Setoguchi and Pavelski. To get both, we'd probably have to trade a forward, and sadly, all we have is Lupul. As such, I see Doug gifting us one of the forwards for some picks, or using one as a ribbon around Cheechoo's salary at the deadline.

We'll likely be losing Selanne and Niedermayer after this season (for good this time). And while Murray can't do anything to stop it, he'll have plenty of options to help him address it.

Read more...

The 1.5 Million Dollar Man

ARTHUR:
Anaheim calling to the hockey world...

Three days ago, the Ducks announced the signing of former Panthers defenseman, Nick Boynton. Dan Wood of the OC Register reports the contract as 1 year/1.5M. That salary is a paycut from the 3 year/2.95M per year deal he signed with Phoenix in 2006, a contract that saw him take a trip through the waiver wire, a trip to Florida in the Olli Jokinen trade and a suspension after a run-in with Panthers head coach Peter DeBoer. Before he was traded to Phoenix for Paul Mara, Boynton made 1.75M per year with the Boston Bruins, who drafted him in the First Round in '99.

Daniel, you've been particularly concerned about getting some Top 4 help on the blueline. Are you happy with Boynton? And if not, who in the 1.5M range were you hoping the Ducks could land?

DANIEL:
Happy is a relative term. I think Murray established two simple criteria for defensive help: did X-defenseman play 500 games in the league, and will X-defenseman take less than $2 million? Once he got Nick Boynton to take that money, he called off the search. This isn't a great signing, but fortunately it's not a bad one either.

Let's start with the positives. When Boynton was in Boston early in his career, he put up Top 4 numbers for a couple years: 24 and 30 points, and +8 and +17. Sportsnet says he uses his size for a physical game, has a good shot and is defensively responsible. All qualities we need in a d-man right now. He's a former First Rounder who has the potential to get the job done.

But, last year was the first time he was a plus-player in three seasons. I understand that number is less reliable when looking at a guy who was playing for the Coyotes, but I'd like to see a little more out of a Top 4 guy. Also, our top d-men log massive minutes. Carlyle has been playing Niedermayer and Pronger to the tune of almost 25 minutes a game. Last year Boynton only played 16 minutes a game. I need to see if this guy has the legs.

Finally, I don't know who else was really out there. I think Paul Mara might have been a good choice, with his 21 pts, 6'4" frame and $1.675M. I liked Leopold a lot (he only signed for $.25M more in Florida) because he's a little meaner and better at transition offense. I think that would have been a better fit for us. Even re-signing Montador might have been a great option, since we've seen how effective he is in our system. Other than that, I have to admit that Murray did a good job getting what was out there. Unless he could have traded for a Klesla out of Columbus, I don't see what else he could have done.

ARTHUR:
First, I want to welcome you to the Klesla fan club. He was sidelined with some nagging injuries this season, and his deal is backloaded so that he actually makes 2.2M this year in salary (1.5 cap hit), but I still love the idea of him in a Ducks sweater. And if anyone from the Top 5 of the 2000 Draft class has been had at a steal, it's Klesla.

As far as Boynton, the thing I like most about this deal is its mobility. If one of our blueline prospects has a breakout season, we can move this contract. Boynton's name still has some cachet with GM's around the league, though none of them were willing to claim him from waivers two years ago (not at 2.95M a year). And Murray did the right thing here, talking a guy down from an overpriced contract, instead of trying to lure a 250 game guy into a sweetheart deal.

I don't think Boynton's numbers have been too bad when you consider that he hasn't been shooting the puck since he left Boston. His Corsi number, the +/- metric that measures shots directed on net, was pretty bad in 2007-08 (-4.9/60 minutes and 8th worst amongst PHX defenseman), but that was coming off an offseason where the Coyotes waived him. This season, his -2.9/60 minutes puts him in the middle of the pack on both the Phoenix and Florida rosters. If the Ducks let him shoot a little more, he'll be a tradeable asset come March, if not an asset to the team.

As far as what else was out there, I don't think Murray could have found a 500 games guy at 1 year/1.5M. Leopold really seemed to enjoy Florida (as he turned down multi-year offers), and guys like Montador were looking for multi-year security. This deal was the best way to fill the void, and still give a guy like Mitera room to make the team this season.

BUT if I knew for a fact that none of the Ducks prospects would make the blueline this year, I'd say that Murray should have picked up Andrew Alberts, even at a 2 or 3 year deal. And he should have been in discussions with Greg Zanon on July 1st.

Read more...

Koivu Signs With Anaheim -- CALLED IT!

DANIEL:
Anaheim Calling to the hockey world...

We don't like to brag, but . . . pretty sure we called it. And we called it in May, weeks before Beauchemin blurbed about the possibility in an interview.

TSN is reporting that Saku Koivu has signed with Anaheim, and as I learned this morning (when he screamed it into my ear), Arthur called the contract (1 yr / 3.25M), damn near exactly.

Despite the doubts I raised about Koivu in our original post, I'm extremely excited to see what Anaheim can do with two legitimate scoring lines, and what Selanne will be like when he's on a line with someone who knows how to play with him. Arthur, you said that Koivu was the marquee center on the free agent market, which means Anaheim has vastly improved their depth up the middle. Obviously, a character guy like Koivu changes a lot of things for the Ducks. So Arthur, what does Koivu change for the Ducks' offense, and where should Anaheim fans expect to be disappointed by Koivu's game?

ARTHUR:
First, I have to reiterate: Called It! Yes, it was more logic than anything else, but I still called it. And yes, as I screamed, I got the salary right:

"Ideally, Koivu comes in at a discount (3/3.75M) on a one-year deal to play with Selanne."

Shameless gloating aside, this is the first time in years that the Ducks have agreed with me. Every offseason, it seems, I pick out a free agent for them to ignore. Last year, it was Mark Streit. The year before that, it was Sheldon Souray. And this year, it was Saku Koivu. I am shocked to be getting what I want, for once.

And I think the positives of signing Koivu have increased since we traded for Joffrey Lupul. Daniel, I know you were worried about having a "shoot now, look for options later" guy like Lupul on a line with Selanne, but I think Koivu addresses a lot of your concerns there. He's going to be judicious with the puck, and ration the rubber to his two finishers, not to mention Whitney's big shot on the blueline. And Koivu's reliable on the dot, ensuring his line starts with the puck. He essentially transforms the Ducks 2nd line (which had been a human chemistry set since McDonald left) into a truly skilled scoring unit.

Koivu also brings serious heart and leadership to the table. During his captaincy in Montreal, he knew exactly when to throw a hit, when to retaliate, when to force the issue and when to skate away. He'll be a calming force on open ice plays, and a cagey vet in the trenches. That reliability will guarantee Koivu and Selanne more ice-time i.e. more time to play tape-to-tape catch all over the Western Conference defenders.

So, where are the holes in the old man's game? Defense. That's a pretty big hole. As a veteran, he knows angles that may have escaped his fellow 5'10" predecessors (Ebbett and McDonald), but he isn't a ferocious backchecker. In fact, no one on that line is. It should be called the NBC line. Not that the Ducks have asked for defense from their 2nd line in recent years, but they surely won't be getting it next year. You can also cite injuries as a possible downside, especially on a one-year contract, but I wouldn't list that as a likely disappointment.

At the end of the day, Anaheim adds a veteran playmaking center for 3.25M. He'll be great with Selanne and Lupul. He'll be great on the power play. Of course, he might occasionally get caught in his own zone, but Ebbett wasn't exactly shutting down the house defensively.

DANIEL:
First, I think Anaheim fans should get used to seeing a happy Selanne. But more importantly, Koivu's a natural centerman who can run a line. He's organized, and he's and a genuine puck distributor, who'll be flanked by two guys that love to put the puck into the net. He's also fast enough to keep up with Selanne on the rush, and a happy Selanne is a 40-goal scorer.

But what makes me even more excited is that our power play is now possibly unstoppable. Alright, maybe not unstoppable, but between Getzlaf and Koivu, you have to expect to win most of those offensive zone faceoffs. And it doesn't matter which line we throw out. It'll be PP line 1 and 1A with Whitney and Niedermayer at the point. I'm still concerned about who will be the second D on the power play with Wisniewski, but that's not Koivu's fault.

I know you said it, but I'll say it too. Koivu is nothing but heart. There might have been a little bit of disappointment in his performance towards the end, but the man never complained. He always played hard, and Anaheim fans can expect that from him.

Unfortunately, Koivu is an injury liability. He's been hurt a lot over his career, and he isn't getting any younger. Recently, he's been more durable, but we play rough and it's something fans should anticipate. Also, let's not kid ourselves. Koivu is 5'10''. Against Joe Thornton, Anze Kopitar or any center with size in the league, it could get ugly. Koivu is a also -10 for his career. It's not that the guy is a defensive liability. It's just that he tends to find himself in bad situations where the puck ends up in the back of the net.

Finally, despite all the good things Koivu can do for us, he is not a big time scorer. Anaheim fans shouldn't expect him to post a 100-point season, after all he's never had one in his career. He's a solid puck distributor, and while the 70-80 points he'll put up this year will be more than we've had from that second line slot since we gave away McDonald, people shouldn't think he's a permanent fix. He'll solidify our scoring, but he might not put up career numbers. And the real advantage won't be his numbers. It'll be the threat that the second line now poses, which frees up space for the top line to do more damage.

Read more...

Is Murray Missing Out?

DANIEL:
This is Anaheim Calling to the hockey world.

The Free Agent maelstrom is continuing around the league. No one knows why the Rangers gave that much money to Gaborik, how the Blackhawks are going to re-sign the key players that go RFA next year, what the Kings did to scare away every elite scorer in the league or if the Canadiens got better or worse.

Meanwhile, the only splash the Ducks have made in the free agent market is re-signing Scott Niedermayer. Arthur, you and I have both said that the Ducks need another Top 4 blueliner and a second line center. So, what do you think? Is Bob Murray going to "wait and see" his way out of the best options to fill those holes?

ARTHUR:
Well, Bob Murray's staring at a budget. Duchatschek of Globe and Mail puts it around $46M. I think that's payroll, not cap hit, and maybe conservative by a few million. Without signing Wisniewski, that gives us around 3M to spend. Maybe 1.3M more if they already paid Bertuzzi.

If that's our wiggle room, I think Murray's doing all he can, maybe even more than he should. He's confident about matching offers to Wisniewski, and many believe he's put an offer down for Koivu. I don't think he's in the market for any of the big names because I don't think he can afford them.

That being said, promoting from within isn't very attractive. MacGregor Sharp makes as much as Nokelainen, and Matt Beleskey only a little bit less. Mark Mitera and Stu Bickel both make more than 1.25M. And, while I think a LOT of the minor leaguers will collect NHL game checks this year to save them from spending the entire season scattered around the AHL, I don't think any of them can solve our depth issues.

Murray can probably make a move for one guy: Koivu or maybe Jay McKee, but either would have to take a pay cut. After that, I think he has to rely on a lot of the guys already in the system. He basically can't have a complete team until he moves Giguere's salary.

DANIEL:
If our budget is $46 million, Anaheim fans better hope for a repeat of the 2003 playoffs, with Hiller playing the role of Giguere. I can't imagine putting together a Cup worthy team for only $46 million, especially when you consider how weak we are on the blueline. With that number, signing Wisniewski would end our offseason and eliminate any chance of improving the team at the deadline.

Murray can sell me on Ebbett. He was productive, and maybe a full year will make him more patient and prevent those retaliatory penalties that were so problematic. But I have a hard time believing we are solid on the back end. Beauchemin is a Top 4 guy who has played here, and, as you pointed out, can change a Playoff series. I might be pleading, but you can't let a guy like that get away. He put in his work. Reach into your pocket, and sign him, Murray . . . Please!!!

Now that I've mourned Beauchemin, let me just say that waiting on Giguere scares me. The best trade partner, if we really are trying to create cap space, would be Montreal. Trading with Toronto would probably involve Toskala's $4 million, and that still wouldn't solve the problems we have. Burke is crazy, but $10 million in net minders is a little ridiculous. He won't deal unless we take Vesa. But, Carey Price is a serviceable backup for Hiller, and we'd save almost $4 million in the deal. Giguere for Price and 2 First Round picks might work. Then we'd have room for our Top 4 D.

I think Murray is being too passive. We have too many holes to sit back like this. I think you might be right in saying Niedermayer came back for his second gold medal because right now, nothing about this offseason leads me to believe the Ducks are taking a serious shot at the Stanley Cup. I'm glad I haven't heard us drop out of the Koivu race, but if we don't start making something happen, it's going to be an early playoff exit for the Ducks.

Read more...

O Captain Still Captain

ARTHUR:
It's official. TSN reports that Scott Niedermayer will return to Anaheim for the 09-10 season at a salary of $6-million plus bonuses. The Ducks captain later appeared on TSN2 to talk about his decision, saying that playing for Canada was only part of his thought process, and that he'd really like to compete in the NHL this year.

That's a statement that rings in my ear as a bit of a sports platitude. So, let's put it up for discussion. Daniel, do you think Niedermayer returned for a one-year contract to play for his 5th Stanley Cup or his 2nd Gold Medal?

DANIEL:
I don't care.

ARTHUR:
Objection, your honor. Non-responsive. Continue.

DANIEL:
If Niedermayer is Niedermayer, he's still one of the Top 5 defenseman in the league. We traded Pronger for secondary scoring, although no one knows how Lupul will pan out, which means we need a number 1 guy on the blue line. We still need someone to round out the top 4, but right now we might have the flexibility to bring back a Beauchemin and he can be just as tough or as mean as Pronger.

I know this doesn't solve all our problems, but when Niedermayer was gone to start the 2007 season, we struggled, even though we had Pronger. It's a lot like Josh in Season 2 of The West Wing, when we hear Niedermayer, we respond "si se puede." If any of our readers don't get that, watch The West Wing. The show's brilliant. I digress. The point is that Niedermayer is a winner, and he makes everyone else around him believe they can win. So, whether he's here for the Olympics or the Stanley Cup, all I know is now that he's here, our chances of a deep playoff run just increased exponentially.

ARTHUR:
I want to mark this as the moment that you gave me the green light to dismiss your questions in the future. I also want to say that this question is born of your rather laughable Cap projection, which had Niedermayer, who's contemplated retirement for three consecutive offseasons now, signing a multi-year deal. But now, I digress.

I'm not saying Niedermayer won't compete for us after the Olympic break. He's a competitive guy. But I can't imagine his drive to return is more about the Cup than the Olympic medal. And none of us can predict how much attaining his primary goal will affect his play, good or bad.

Let me be clear that I'm not diminishing the Stanley Cup, here. Five Cups is good. It puts him ahead of the other six active players last year with four. It puts him ahead of guys from the Oilers and Islanders dynasties. And Nieds would be doing it over a 15-year period with different teams and different-looking teams. In his era, five would set him apart.

But here's the thing. Even if you're only counting players who never played for Montreal, Red Kelly has 8 Stanley Cup wins. But how many players who never played for the Soviet Union have multiple Gold Medals? Since the last time the Soviet Union won (1988), the answer is THREE: Peter Forsberg, Jorgen Jonsson and Kenny Jonsson.

Four Stanley Cups and two gold medals will be tough to beat, in any era. If Niedermayer is looking at the end of his career, and thinking about cementing his legacy, I think the 2nd Gold Medal is calling to him louder than the Cup.

Of course, FIVE Stanley Cups and two gold medals wouldn't be too shabby either...

Read more...

Free Agency Eve

DANIEL:
Well, the Draft is only a few days old, but that won't stop the impending craze that will be Day One of free agency. There's not a lot of superstar talent out there, but there are still very serviceable options that would let any GM fill a couple of needs at some, hopefully, reasonable prices.

The Ducks still have some holes on the depth chart, considering the newly acquired Sbisa might not be a Top 4 defenseman for another 2-3 years, and a second line center, who is less of a defensive liability, would be nice. But the question comes in three parts today. First, what is the need the Ducks HAVE to fill in order to stay in contention next year, and who/what style of player do you see as an option to fill that role? Which player/style of player do you see the team signing that might end up being dead weight? Finally, give me the one player you'd love to sign that would fit perfectly on the Ducks.

ARTHUR:
The Ducks need a true second line center. To echo something Bob Murray said in a recent interview, we haven't been the same since we traded Andy McDonald. That isn't to say it was a mistake to let him go. We could certainly use someone bigger at that position, someone who can't be targeted by other teams. But McDonald's toolbox (strong on the draw, speed through the neutral zone and great vision) is sorely missed.

That style of player isn't really on the market right now. Not in our price range. Henrik Sedin isn't on the market by himself, and we don't have the chips to offer sheet Phil Kessel. I have to believe that the only realistic move for the Ducks is a one-year-deal with a veteran. I like Saku Koivu for that. And I think trying other veterans like Bonk or Peca would convert them into dead weight, and long-term contracts with younger players would transform into dead weight within two years.

I don't know if the Ducks can solve any problems on the blueline through free agency. There is certainly disappointment in the trio of Festerling, Salcido and Mikkelson. Apparently, when you've got three kids ready to break out of the AHL, you've really got none. Mitera may leap over all of them.

Ultimately, if we shop for blueliners in free agency, I think we acquire a middle-pairing guy, and try to force someone from our system into the Top 4 i.e. Scotty or Whitney will have to play with Mikk, Fest or Mitera. As far as who that middle-pairing guy is, I can't say. Rick Paterson is good at finding second-year guys, like Brookbank and McIver, not to mention a second-contract guy like Montador. I foolishly want us to bring back Shane O'Brien, just to put some size and grit back in the lineup.

I'm also tempted to go after Jay McKee after his buyout, but I think the Bret Hedican Deadweight award would go to Darryl Sydor. I love you Darryl, but it might be time to use that hockey stick for shuffleboard.

DANIEL:
I agree that we haven't been the same since we traded Andy McDonald, but I think the one need we can't afford to ignore is in our Top 4 defense. Beauchemin is there, and I can't help but feel that if we let him get away, he will most assuredly make us pay for it in a way that has nothing to do with money. I like Beauchemin's ability to be nasty. He has a big shot, and he can eat up minutes. If not Beauchemin, Lepold could probably be had for a little less money if Florida doesn't sign him. I'm also in complete agreement that as long as we're bringing back our own draft picks, O'Brien would be more than serviceable. As it stands now, I just don't think we have enough on the blueline. Of course, It wouldn't surprise me to see Murray overcompensate and throw Mathieu-Schneider-money at the likes of a Blake, or worse an Aucoin, leaving us cash-strapped next offseason.

The free agent I want the most, though, is probably Martin Havlat. His style of play would really fit in Anaheim. I think he has the speed to keep up with Selanne, and he's a little more defensively responsible than Teemu. I think that would make him a great option on that line, and he could probably overcome some of Ebbett's shortcomings. Also, why not Chris Gratton. He may not be a scoring threat, but what about him and Brown as our top two PK Forwards? It's just to sexy to think about.

Read more...

Pronger For Lupul 2: Electric Boogaloo

ARTHUR:
Anaheim calling to the hockey world...

They say, in sports, it's impossible to quantify a player's worth. Nothing could be further from the truth for Chris Pronger. He's worth, exactly, Joffrey Lupul, a 1st Round defenseman, and assorted picks (relative to his Stanley Cup success at the time). The price has been proposed and paid twice. Most recently on Friday, when Anaheim moved their 6'6" defenseman to Philadelphia, the team currently paying Joffrey Lupul. For Pronger and Ryan Dingle, the Ducks acquired Lupul, Luca Sbisa, the Flyers' 2009 and 2010 1st Round Pick and a conditional 3rd Round pick for 2010/11. Puck Daddy's Greg Wyshynski reports the 3rd Rounder is conditional on whether or not the Flyers win the Stanley Cup.

Chris Pronger D
Salary: 6.25M (UFA 2010)
Instrumental in the Ducks' playoff run this season, Pronger played the most responsible shutdown defense of his career, tying a career low 12 PIM in Anaheim's series against the Sharks and Red Wings.

Ryan Dingle C
Salary: 850K (RFA 2009)
Dingle was signed as a free agent after a standout scoring career with the Denver Pioneers. He split time with the ECHL and AHL last season, but turned in 18 points in 70 games with the CHOPS this year.

Joffrey Lupul RW
Salary: 4.25M (UFA 2013)
Lupul notched 50 points (25 G) for the Flyers this season, his highest output since leaving Anaheim. He also scored a goal and an assist in the Flyers' series against the Penguins.

Luca Sbisa D (RFA 2011)
Salary: 875K
Sbisa was Philadelphia's 1st Round pick (19th overall) in last year's Entry Draft. He played 40 games for the Flyers this year, including one playoff game, accruing 38 PIM and 7 assists.

The Pronger trade was the other shoe in this year's edition of Scott Niedermayer's "To Play or Not To Play" saga, and it was widely believed that Prongs would leave Anaheim in a salary dump. However, with the addition of roughly 5M in cap hits, this deal is far from a dump. And with the Ducks making (arguably) minimal use of Philadelphia's pick, this looks no better than a deal that could have happened at the trade deadline i.e. Pronger for Kessel, who, in all likelihood, would not have re-signed for less than Lupul's salary.

Daniel, what SHOULD a Pronger trade have done for the Ducks, and what does this trade actually do?

DANIEL:
First, let me say that I am only writing this now because it is exactly now that I stopped sobbing long enough to write. This trade is horrible, and it's horrible for two reasons: Joffrey Lupul's contract and Joffrey Lupul's style of play. Before I get into that, let me answer the first question. The Pronger trade should have provided us with three things:

1) Draft Picks: Success!!
2) A top 6 forward for Selanne: Kind of, sort of, not really
3) Payroll flexibility: Epic Fail

I know a lot of Anaheim fans will remember the Lupul that scored 28 goals for us and 4 in one playoff game, and will love to have him back. The problem is that Lupul is a finisher, and Selanne is a finisher, and there's only one puck. Selanne can't spend all of his energy chasing the puck just so Lupul can reload. We need someone who can join Selanne on the rush and work the complex passing that makes his skills deadly to opponents. I don't think Lupul will be able to keep up with Selanne, and I think Lupul's inability to share the puck is only going to frustrate Teemu and ruin any potential chemistry. More importantly, if we move Ryan to the second-line instead of Lupul, it won't bring back the Selanne of 2006-2007 that we desperately neeed.

Next, Lupul's contract is 4.25 million/year for the next 4 years. That means that after we pay Niedermayer his money (about 6 million for 2-4 years depending on what he wants) and pay Wisniewski (another 2-3 million over 3-5 years), our cap hit next year is about 46 million, give or take a million, depending on who gets how much money. But that's without signing a Marchant or a Rob Niedermayer, or another Top 4 defenseman, like Beauchemin. Essentially, our cap number for the 2010-2011 season, a season where the cap is expected to drop again, will be in the neighborhood of 43 million, without counting any offer to Marchant or Rob, or the Top 4 defenseman we still need. Bobby Ryan and Jonas Hiller will be Free agents in 2010. If Bob Murray can get those two to stay for 7 million dollars, forget GM of the year, he deserves the Congressional Medal of Honor and a harem of Dutch girls from the red light district. For those of you playing the at-home-game, now is the time to curse Joffrey Lupul, or pray for his future departure, because he's taking up Bobby Ryan's and/or Jonas Hiler's money.

ARTHUR:
My salary cap forecast is a little different from yours, as I don't see Scott Niedermayer ever signing another multi-year deal, but I wholeheartedly agree that Bobby Ryan is going to want a hefty raise at the end of next year. When you look at the 2005 Draft Class: Sidney Crosby just raised the Stanley Cup, Jack Johnson's moving on to a new contract this season and Ryan just finished 2nd in Calder voting in a year where it took a freak injury to Teemu Selanne to get him out of the AHL. I wouldn't be surprised if he offer-sheeted us and walked.

And I refuse to believe that Bob Murray isn't lying awake at night, pondering that possibility. The nearest I can figure, he's operating under the assumption that Niedermayer and Selanne will retire after this season, which leaves plenty of money to waste on shoring up the holes they will leave. If that's the case, I agree with his shopping list, but completely disagree with his purchase.

Going to Philadelphia for a forward is like going to the Airport for lunch, and Joffrey Lupul is a $10 Big Mac, which we'll be eating for the next 4 years. I'm not saying he's devoid of nutritional value, but in every other hockey market (except maybe Manhattan) he's a $4 burger. Seriously, Murray. Where's the beef?

Again, I agree with the decision to use Chris Pronger to acquire a Top Six forward to either replace Selanne or act as an insurance policy against a Bobby Ryan offer sheet. That is just as valid as dumping salary and acquiring draft picks. But you have to do it affordably. Ideally, Murray should have acquired an expensive long-term contract that would make it unnecessary for him to pursue Beauchemin this offseason or shop the free agent market for a second line center. Instead, he bought a contract that makes both tasks, at once, imperative and impossible.

Read more...

Selanne to Mont-- I Mean --Koivu to Anaheim?

[2008 IHWC: Koivu to Selanne to Kloistinen and through the side of the net.]

ARTHUR:
Anaheim calling to the hockey world...

For a few offseasons now, we've heard the rumor: Selanne to Montreal. Apparently, between calls from Paul Kariya, Teemu fields impassioned pleas from his countryman, Saku Koivu, to come join him in French Canada. But as of TSN's report yesterday (a translation of an unnamed Russian paper), it seems that Koivu is done with the Canadiens, who are moving on and offering his contract and captaincy to Kovalev. It stands to reason that Saku might consider this an opportunity to go play with Teemu.

Daniel, you recently suggested we write about the free agent market, but I said the waters were a bit murky this side of July 1st. I was, however, willing to say I wanted Koivu if he was a free agent, and this report would seem to guarantee he will be. So, let's start the Koivu to Anaheim rumor. Give me your upside/downside of a Saku Koivu signing.

DANIEL:
Now that you've confirmed your brilliant hockey sense once again, I've gotta say I'm only kind of a fan of this prospect. There's no doubt that Koivu could shore up our second line scoring. He's a natural center, and it would let us move Ebbett to the wing where his size would be less of a problem. I do like an Ebbett, Koivu, Selanne, line. It'd be two guys who have great play making abilities, which means you have two guys who can work the puck between them until Selanne is open to finish. I think that line would be a lot more deadly than people realize. Especially since Koivu and Selanne know each other well enough, in terms of playing together, that training camp will probably be enough for them to gel as linemates. The only real problem is that he lacks size and that might affect the cycle game that we like to play. It would not be a line that plays the puck possession style we like. It would be a faster line looking for transition opportunities. Not that that's bad, just it wouldn't fit perfectly into our scheme.

I think the real concern, though, has to be injuries. I'm not saying he's fragile, and certainly part of it had to do with the fact that he battled cancer in the middle of his career, but he only played 65 games last year. In fact, he's only played more than 70 games 5 times in his 13 seasons. Granted, 4 of those have been in the last 6 seasons, but I think the injury concern needs to be factored in to any contract he gets. Otherwise, I think it's a smart move. If he plays next year, it will probably be Selanne's last. We owe it to him to get someone who can keep up with him and play on the rush with him. That guy could definitely be Koivu. I think our physical style of play makes Koivu's susceptibility to injuries a greater concern for us. You've said it yourself, small guys have to protect themselves, and it causes problems. But with Koivu we have to worry if our physical game ends up taking him out of the line up.

ARTHUR:
I'm going to disagree that cycling is a concern for the second line. Selanne's recent lines have all played a speed and short-pass style, which has allowed him to play with centers like McDonald and Ebbett. Here's my Upside/Downside:

Upside
-Selanne would be happy. Teemu hasn't agreed to play next year, and can you blame him? He took a pay cut again, and we signed Brendan Morrison. We owe him this, and if Selanne's happy, you have to think he and Koivu might sign to play additional years with the Ducks. That's right, I said it. I want Selanne to play until he's arthritic in both hips.

-Instant Chemistry. Koivu is one of two veterans that knows how to play with Teemu, how to receive a Selanne pass and how to cover for bad Selanne plays. They would make each other better.

-Quick on the Draw. The Ducks have had trouble in the circle without McDonald (and then without Sammy). Koivu was 54.1% on the dot this season, 13th amongst NHL centermen who took 1000+, and he was 52.3%/21st the year before.

-Best on the market. As far as Top Six centers in this year's potential free agent market, Koivu's probably the best pickup we could make. I might've said Connolly before the Sabres resigned him, but the veterans are all retirement candidates and there are no young guns that warrant the risk of a multi-year deal. If Murray's intent on not going "0 for 3" as he put it, this is the best pickup short of a trade.

Downside
-Inconsistency. I agree that his injuries may catch up with us, but you also have to consider that in his most recent and most productive complete season, he posted a minus-21 on a 75-point campaign. Granted, the East is not about defense, but will he be able to score and still play consistent defense in the West?

-Salary. Ideally, Koivu comes in at a discount (3/3.75M) on a one-year deal to play with Selanne. A multi-year contract or a big one-year contract would be out of the question for the Ducks.

Read more...

Prongs/Jiggy: Who Do You Move?

ARTHUR:
The offseason talk has begun for the Anaheim Ducks. At this point, it looks like they'll make a play for most, or all, of their Restricted Free Agents (Bodie, Brown, Christensen and Wisniewski), as an unmatchable offer sheet for any of those players is unlikely and well-worth the draft picks of any team foolish enough to tender it. In the UFA department, Hedican will likely retire, the elder Niedermayer gains you the younger, Beauchemin may become unaffordable and Todd Marchant may come back at a discount or at the same price as a permanent 3rd line center. As far as free agents on other teams, those waters are still a bit murky (though Whicker of the OC Register is ready to toss a contract Chad Larose's way).

Let's deal in the concrete, Daniel. Assuming we sign Scotty, which is not TOO great a leap, considering he'd like to be ready to play in the Vancouver Olympics next year. What's the trade you would make? Do you move Prongs for Kariya, as you suggested earlier? Do you dangle the prospect of Montreal in front of Jiggy (though WHO you could get back, not named Markov, from that free agency depleted team, I don't know)? Or do you move some other big contract for some other player I haven't even thought to consider? Who's your big move and for whom?

DANIEL:
I have an interesting scenario. First, I'd like to say I still love a Pronger for Kariya trade. We should get a pick in the deal. I think a 3rd or 4th rounder would do, mostly because St. Louis will get more use out of a veteran blue liner than it will out of a player like Kariya. We wouldn't save a lot on the cap hit, but Kariya would do so much for us. If we can't sign Niedermayer, we need to find a way to take Kariya out of St. Louis without giving up Pronger because he can do a lot of the same rover things from the point on a power play and he would solidify our second line.

But onto trades, I think we should trade in the division. Every time I look at the list of what teams have and what they might be willing to part with, I'm very unimpressed. The free agent market is going to be great this year. Not because of all the high priced talent, but because of the sheer depth. There will be plenty of opportunity to fill need at very reasonable prices, more so upfront than on the blue line, which makes it that much harder to part with Pronger. But I think L.A. would make a great trading partner. They have the 5th overall pick this year. So, they might be more willing to part with a Top 6 forward. Plus, they have two young defensemen in need of a mentor, who knows how to teach solid play and, more importantly, how to be dominant. There have been rumors surrounding Frolov before, not very serious ones, but rumors nonetheless. I think if we get Frolov and the Kings' first round pick in the 2010 draft, it's a good deal for Pronger. The Kings look like they are on the way up. So, maybe a pick in the teens in 2010 won't be something they feel they need to hold onto. I'd also like a pick in the later rounds of this year's draft, if we can get the deal done by then, maybe 4th or later, but 3rd would be nice.

On the flip side, I see this as an equally good deal in a Giguere trade--

ARTHUR:
Wait a minute. You think the Kings would take on a 6M salary at goalie? Where they already have two goaltenders, both of whom carry GAA's at least .5 a goal better than Giguere?

I'd maybe give you Pronger because he is an asset at only an extra year, but I doubt the Kings, the SMALLEST payroll in the league, who haven't tried to keep a multi-million dollar player since-- I don't know --Ziggy Palffy, and who have only one player making 4M (though Kopitar's 7M kicks in next year) would move a single asset to add a player at a position where their depth chart is full, qualified and priced at less than 1.5M for BOTH goaltenders.

DANIEL:
Yes, I do. I'm not sure the Kings are as SET at goalie as people think. The one problem they have always had, since Hrudey was released, has been in net. The chance to anchor that position and let the team flourish, even for just two years, should be worth any price. It's not like they haven't tried to pay a goalie before, remember Cloutier? The difference, here, is that Jiggy has a ring and a Conn Smythe that Cloutier didn't.

I don't deny that Quick and Ersberg are quality between the pipes, but they have a collected 0 playoff wins to their names and the Kings will be looking to make that jump to a playoff team this year, after a promising start to last season. Jiggy will give them the experience they need in net to make that jump. I don't see how having a 23 year old rookie sit for a year and a half behind Giguere is bad. And if they re-sign him as an RFA, Quick will still only be 25 when Jiggy's contract expires. This means he'll still have 7-10 years between the pipes for the Kings. Also, Ersberg becomes a trade asset at that point. Two years gives the Kings time to groom another backup and shop Ersberg for extra scoring or defensive depth, which they definitely need. I think the Kings can tolerate the contract in order to make sure their franchise goalie can handle the pressure of a Stanley Cup run. The Kings have been second class in So Cal Hockey since we won the Cup; picking up Jiggy could be enough to make them relevant again.

Although, if we were to deal Jiggy instead of Pronger, I would want a Kings draft pick this year. Jiggy is a Conn Smythe winner and worth two first rounders. Frolov was a first round pick; seems like a fair price. So, for those keeping track, it would be Jiggy for Alexander Frolov, the 2009 first round pick, and a late pick in this draft, possibly a 4th or, better yet, a 3rd.

I think the Giguere trade ends up being the best bet. The Kings can slow up Quick's development and have him be around a hard working goalie, who knows how to get it done at a high level. We get a forward, who scored 32 goals last year and who is very capable of playing the power style of game we like, but who also has speed and a little finesse in the transition game. This gives Carlyle much more flexibility in moving around the likes of Perry and Bobby Ryan because Frolov could play on the top line or round out the second line. Although, I'd much rather see a transition forward like Perry with Ebbett and Selanne. This also has the bonus of Giguere not moving far, so maybe he'd wave his no-trade clause and let it happen.

I'm not completely sold on moving Pronger. He became so much more of a monster when he realized he was staying for the year. If this is how he plays with job security, I think he deserves an extension with a no-trade clause. Pronger doesn't seem to be dropping off too far, and if we can somehow keep those 5 defensemen we were working with during the playoffs with us all year, we might win another division title.

ARTHUR:
Alright. I'll agree that Frolov is about the perfect size/speed of player we're looking for, which is hard to come by in the free agent market. It's probably my lack of faith in the Kings that makes me question the move.

It pains me to say this, Daniel. As you know, I'm the only one we've seen at Ponda Center who rocks Jiggy's Halifax jersey, but . . . I'd move Giguere. It's Pronger, Giguere or both, the way I see it. As far as what you get for them, I'd say you fill a hole on the team, add a superstar or get prospects and save money.

Here's the thing though, if you're going to move at least one of them, why move Pronger? We saw this team make a run without Giguere, and they were pretty good. We have no idea what they'd be like without Pronger, and Carlyle even switched to an effective Pronger/Niedermayer pairing in Game 6 against the Red Wings. It would be hard for me to see this team move Pronger, and not think of it as rebuilding. Yes, we technically prepared to move him by picking up Whitney, but we know Whitney can't actually replace him and that losing Pronger AND Beauchemin would severely deplete this defensive corps. I think losing Pronger is the Devil-we-don't-know, whereas losing Jiggy is the Devi-we've-become-acquainted-with this Spring.

So, where do you move a guy with a no-trade clause? I'd imagine Jiggy's first choice would be Montreal, and I'm sure the Habs would love to have him. The Habs may get some more players under contract by then, but for now, I'd say this is a prospect trade. We move Jiggy for a 1st/2nd Round Draft pick, Ryan McDonagh and a young NHL player (maybe Latendresse if the RFA re-signs) or rookie (most likely Max Pacioretty or Yannick Weber). If we need a goaltending insurance policy, we take Price in the deal instead of a skater. Sounds steep, I know, but a Conn Smythe backstop is hard to come by in any offseason market.

Believe it or not, I actually like a Montreal trade, both for the likelihood of Giguere signing off on it and for what it would bring to the Ducks. But since this IS a blog, and I should start a totally off-the-wall rumor: Giguere for Cheechoo. Yes, the logical suitors for Giguere are Colorado, Tampa Bay and maybe Philadelphia, but if the Sharks are down on Nabokov, you have to ask HOW down they are. The contract lengths match, the cap hit for Giguere is 12M over the next two years, the cap hit for Cheechoo is 6M over the next two years and both players make an additional 1M in salary over those numbers.

On the likelihood of such a ridiculous trade, I say the Sharks do it because they've shopped Cheechoo before, and they may truly be down on Nabokov after his performance in the First Round this year. The Ducks do it because Jiggy will probably sign off on such a short geographical jump to a legit contender in a region with similar healthcare agencies and experts for his son. And the Ducks also do it because the whole "trading within your own division" thing has never really applied to these two teams. They've done the 'big' trade before. The pre-lockout schedule means fewer games against each other, most of which the Ducks can concede to the Sharks. And both players will see an expanded role if traded, but are equally likely to be the "difference" in any series between the teams in the near future (i.e. the remaining two years on their contracts). So, Giguere for Cheechoo with Anaheim spending the extra money on a free agent.

Read more...

It Happened at 3:30

ARTHUR:

As news was breaking on the Ducks' last two deadline trades, Bob Murray held a media conference call. Explaining the jettison of two-thirds of the 2007 Stanley Cup Champions' "Shut Down" line, Murray had this to say, "You talk to Travis, Sammy and Husky. They love it here and wanted to stay here, but they all look at you and say, ‘I’ve got to try free agency’. The contract negotiations were going nowhere." Clearly still spooked by the free agency debacle with Dustin Penner, Bob Murray moved all three of the soon-to-be Unrestricted Free Agents for whatever he could get, going so far as to trade with the division rival San Jose Sharks.

[note:  the B-roll graphic that introduces the highlight video also features two Bonino goals]

For the consistently tough forechecker Moen and the recently declining Huskins, the Ducks acquire a conditional pick and prospects Nick Bonino and Timo Pielmeier from San Jose. Bonino is a Hockey East superstar sophomore and Boston University's second most productive scorer. Pielmeier was San Jose's third round pick in 2007, and the 19-year old is currently tending goal in the QMJHL to the tune of 29 wins and a 2.62 GAA.

In exchange for Pahlsson, Logan Stephenson and a conditional pick, Chicago ships defenseman James Wisniewski and center Petri Kontiola to Anaheim. Wisniewski was scouted as a scorer in the OHL, but has been unable to reproduce those numbers in the AHL or NHL, while Kontiola has had successful seasons in the AHL but has yet to be truly tested at the NHL level.

Okay Daniel, assuming the Ducks couldn't sign these guys for the market price in July, was Bob Murray right to pull the trigger here? And is something really better than nothing when you improve teams in your own conference in exchange for that something?

DANIEL:

First, I have to say that I like the deal we made with San Jose, so he was right in shipping off Moen.  Huskins is pretty solid, but he's still prone to mental mistakes and he was so inconsistent, it was infuriating.  And that "Shut Down" line just hadn't been as effective recently.  Yes, it was a team in our division, one I'm pretty sure all Ducks fans hate, but we got a really good center prospect, who might be going pro soon.  I think if any team has shown how important College players can be, it's us.  More importantly, we got a goalie prospect.  Pielmeier is 19 and is putting up good numbers. The fact is, as much as I love Hiller, by the time Giguere's contract is up Hiller will almost be 30 and we'll need another outstanding backup.  We were so thin in goalie prospects that you almost have to love this move.  We got two solid prospects, and a potential 2nd round pick if the Sharks make the finals, 4th if they don't, for two guys we weren't sure would be here next year.

On the other hand the Pahlsson deal might not have been as good.  We are trading what amounts to, in my humble opinion, one of the best defensive centers in the game for a defenseman who isn't much of a scorer, and didn't do anything that amazing in the game the other night except be a -1.  It'll be nice to have a solid d-man to replace Montador though. Wisniewski might not be as nasty, but he has been a plus player, if nothing else.  I think this becomes a good deal if we can keep Wisniewski at a reasonable rate, somewhere between 1 -1.5M.  He can be a good 3rd pair defenseman.  In the long run though, Sammy was so good for our system and the way we played, not to mention he's severely underrated as an offensive player.  Look at the work he did on that first powerplay unit.  I just think moving a Pahlsson requires a second round pick and a player/quality prospect.  He's a lynchpin type of guy and given the trouble we've already had with the Hawks I don't see this being good for us if we hit them in the playoffs.

I think we did a bad job strengthening Chicago, and not a good enough job strengthening ourselves.  I think we cleared enough cap space that you have to pick up some sort of scoring veteran, just to let the team know you haven't quit.  Yes, this team is good enough to make the playoffs as is, and Christensen might play well on the top line with Perry and Getzlaf, but who knows.  He's been pretty much a bust up until now.  I think adding a Satan or giving Afinogenov a new home would have been great for us.  We would have 2 solid scoring lines, at least a solid D and of course you never know what can happen if Jiggy decides to be his Conn Smythe self.  I'd have to say that after the deadline everything is just a jumble, and Carlyle is going to have a tough time trying to come up with line combinations that make sense right now.

ARTHUR:

Well, let's be clear that when you're signing an Unrestricted Free Agent, it doesn't matter if the guy finished the season with you or not.  Yes, it's dangerous to let Sammy and Travis sample the players, coaching staffs and front offices of other organizations, but in July they take the offer they want.  If they really want to play for us, they'll say so in July, and then Bob Murray looks like a damned genius.  If they really need more money than the Ducks are willing to offer then it's good that Murray pulled the trigger because these guys weren't coming back.

I agree that the San Jose trade is the better trade here.  I still remember the highlight of Nick Bonino absolutely undressing Thiessen with a wraparound in his Freshman season last year.  The kid's been solid for the Terriers, and he was Reebok's Hockey Player of the Month last month.  He and Colin Wilson are lighting up Hockey East.  Pielmeier is an important pickup because Hiller's two-year renewal expires next year, and he was a starter LAST year.  Jiggy's contract will continue into the 10-11 season.  Hiller seems like a good kid, but if he wants to start somewhere in Jiggy's last year, we can't ask him to sign and wait.

I think the Hawks trade gives us, effectively, nothing.  To me, it literally is nothing. There are teams where Wisniewski could be an effective Power Play quarterback, but he won't see that ice time with us-- this year or next year.  Especially not if Niedermayer chooses Anaheim as the lame-duck team that pays him to play in the Vancouver Games [no pun intended].  Wisniewski's been bordering on "bust" as an offensive defenseman for quite a while now.  And the Ducks have steadily picked up defensive defenseman that deserve his ice time.  He's not the kind of guy whose basic abilities put Brookbank on the scratch list, unless he can improve his defensive game or really establish his offensive game.  He'll help transition because that's all he's been playing in Chicago, but he'll have to score as many goals as he gives up to be valuable, a feat that Mathieu Schnieder barely accomplished as a Duck.  Kontiola's potentially good, but he didn't make much of his ice time as a Blackhawk.  And after playing so many years in the Finnish Leagues, he's now 24, and bordering on busting as a career AHL player.  

I think Murray had to pull the trigger, but I think if you have the San Jose offer on the table, you keep Pahlsson.  You promote Mike Brown, and add the money you were spending on Moen and Huskins to Pahlsson's offer.  What we got for Pahlsson is not worth the risk, however minimal, of letting Sammy get a taste of playing with a great Chicago team.  Remember that Sammy got frustrated when we asked him to produce offensively to open this season, though he warmed to the prospect of playing on the Power Play.  Chicago will ask him to do exactly what he did in 2007, and exactly what almost won him a Selke, nothing more.

Read more...

Deadline Deals: Declaring a Winner

ARTHUR:
A fairly busy trade deadline today, but no real blockbuster moves, as the biggest name, Ducks defenseman Chris Pronger, stayed in Anaheim. The general consensus is that Calgary, acquiring Jokinen and Leopold from two cellar teams, made out like bandits.

Daniel, who was the real winner today, is there a dark horse team that made itself significantly better, and is there a clear loser?

DANIEL:
I'd like to say the clear loser is the Ducks. We gave up a lot of depth for what basically amounts to a hope for a future pay-out. More importantly, the Leafs had a really good day. They shed some assets and picked up some good picks. Burke is going to do a good job up there; I hope Toronto fans are ready for a salary cap mess.

The Flames did do great work. Bringing back Leopold might have been their best move. Let's face it, he's good at moving the puck, and to a team with that much speed up front, not to mention some good creativity going through the neutral zone, it's just one more guy who is going to keep their transition offense in the back of the mind of every defender daring enough to pinch.

My big winner of the day though is Boston. They got Recchi, a veteran forward who already has two rings, and has had a very quiet but successful year down in Tampa Bay. The guy still knows how to finish around the net and can round out a second line for them very nicely. Plus, with Sturm hurt Recchi is an inexpensive replacement that cost a couple of prospects. Then they added Montador in exchange for a Center, who was being crowded out and was not a major part of their game plan anyway. Montador was leading the Ducks in +/- and he brings great character to a playoff team. Montador isn't afraid to get his nose dirty, a trait that'll really benefit a team in the cutthroat Eastern Conference.

ARTHUR:
Unfortunately, I can't declare the Ducks the clear loser tonight, but I'm factoring in the Whitney trade, Bob Murray's mitigating excuses (which we'll discuss in the next post), and a couple of smart trades that happened before 3:30pm today.

I'd have to call the Avs the losers. Yes, they came into today as clear sellers, but there's an art to selling. If you can't move Ryan Smyth, you don't just move whomever you can for whatever you can get. They only made one deal, and it was a bad one.

For the winner, I'm going to agree it's the Bruins. Mark Recchi's a feel-good story, as he's had trouble finding work since the Penguins waived him. The Bruins basically get back Glen Murray with this move, though Recchi's maybe 10mph faster. And if you factor in Murray's buyout and Recchi's salary, they still saved 1.1M (for this season's cap). The addition of Montador guarantees that one of Boston's babyface defensemen will see more scratch time. And is there anything scarier than a playoff team with dynamic young stars adding Stanley Cup experience and a seasoned blueliner? Read more...

Pronger Possibilities

DANIEL:
So, the rumors have been flying around for almost a month but the LA Times and OC Register are both reporting that Pronger is likely to remain a Duck. The question for Arthur this morning is easy: Is this a mistake? Given that the Ducks most recent setback, a 3-2 overtime loss in Chicago, can probably be credited to a lack of scoring, is it wiser to let Pronger go a for a quality winger that can play with Getzlaf-Perry and a high draft pick?

ARTHUR:
First, let's be clear that this might be a negotiation tactic. Yes, the Ducks told Pronger and his agent at the close of business last night that he wouldn't be traded, but we don't really know what's on the table right now.



There were really only two rumored deals of note regarding Pronger. One was with St. Louis, and the other was with Boston. The St. Louis package would have included David Perron, and what I can only hope was their first round pick. Perron's a 30A Center right now and one of the Top 5 young forecheckers in the league, but you can't be sure he'd see ice time in Carlyle's matchup system. The St. Louis pick would position us high enough to draft Jordan Schroeder, the Junior out of the U of M. He's a little guy, but an undeniably dynamic scorer, and he's complemented the Gophers' 6'3" Ryan Stoa very well this season.



The deal with Boston would have included Phil Kessel, and some negligible pick that we could trade for on draft day. This is the deal that I called you about, and just said "two words: Phil Kessel." When I heard the Ducks were talking to Boston, I just assumed certain players were not on the table. Phil Kessel was one of them. I've been watching this kid since he played for the Gophers in 2005, and he's become better and better every year. He won't drop below 30
goals for the next three seasons.

Based on the two best deals-- that we've heard about! --I'd have to say that only one of them could have won the game against Chicago last night, and Boston walked away from that deal. Then again, I can't really say that Chicago exposed our lack of scoring. Yes, that's a team that you need to score 3 goals to beat, but a .600 team could lose last night's game in March, a .500 team has to steal it.

I like either deal if it helps us make another deal. Kessel makes around 2.2M, and Perron a little under 1M. That's enough juice to pick up Satan or make a big move. But at the end of the day, Pronger was the BEST player on the trading block at deadline. You don't move him for someone that can't make us better right now. Read more...

Ducks waive Morrison; Penguins waive Satan

ARTHUR:
With 24 hours to go before the NHL trade deadline, there's a traffic jam on the waiver wire.

The Ducks have waived forward Brendan Morrison, presumably to make cap room for a move and/or the return of Pahlsson and Beauchemin, whose cap spaces are currently occupied by Ducks rookies. Signed to fill the void left by Andy MacDonald, Morrison had 10 G and 12 A through 61 games this season, but the 33 year-old found that he could not recover the explosive entry-speed he had before his ACL reconstruction last year and Randy Carlyle quickly pulled him from the Center position. His one year 2.75 M contract expires unrestricted at the end of this season.

Also headed down the waiver wire is the Penguins' Miroslav Satan. The Slovakian winger posted 17 G and 19 A through 64 games, but failed to develop chemistry with linemate, Sidney Crosby (23G 56A). The acquisition of Crosby's new linemate, Chris Kunitz, made Satan's one year 3.5 M contract superfluous.

Okay Daniel, you were clamoring for the Ducks to acquire Miro Satan last off-season, CAN they still do it, and SHOULD they?


DANIEL:
This is the opportunity the Ducks need to get right back into the mix. Satan might have lost a step, but the guy is still a bona fide finisher. He's always had good hockey sense, and let's face it, anyone who's played in the Sabres organization in the past 15 years would be great for the chase and cycle system we play. Imagine Satan sneaking around the slot while Getzlaf and Perry play catch behind the net.

The Ducks would still have to free up a little bit of space, even after Morrison clears up space by either dying in the minors or being a drain on some other team. Moreover, this is a way to get a top 6 forward, without having to trade away Pronger. This means that the core of the Cup run team is still together, albeit 2 years older. The only way this isn't a good idea, is if Beauchemin is on his way back and we don't know it. Then we need to keep some cap space for him to come back. He and Pahlsson are the two must-keeps this off-season.


ARTHUR:
I agree wholeheartedly that the Ducks have to keep Pahlsson and Beauchemin. You can’t salvage the dynamic of the Carlyle Ducks without them. So, any salary moves this year have to take their raises into account for next year.

The Ducks were playing with around 500K before they moved Morrison. That means they’ve got around 3M-- that’s maybe just one contract away.  The real question is how many of the teams in the hunt will pass on Satan and his expiring 3.5M contract. The "CAN they" is the bigger problem here.

On the "SHOULD they," of course they should. Satan isn’t just a sniper, he’s a trigger happy sniper. The Ducks desperately need that; they need someone who will shoot without cute passes or open lanes. Satan has the ability to improve an already strong Power Play squad, or to create an equally dangerous second unit. And at 6'3" 200 lbs, he's a big-bodied quality skater who has the potential to stay a Duck. Read more...