Free Agency Eve

DANIEL:
Well, the Draft is only a few days old, but that won't stop the impending craze that will be Day One of free agency. There's not a lot of superstar talent out there, but there are still very serviceable options that would let any GM fill a couple of needs at some, hopefully, reasonable prices.

The Ducks still have some holes on the depth chart, considering the newly acquired Sbisa might not be a Top 4 defenseman for another 2-3 years, and a second line center, who is less of a defensive liability, would be nice. But the question comes in three parts today. First, what is the need the Ducks HAVE to fill in order to stay in contention next year, and who/what style of player do you see as an option to fill that role? Which player/style of player do you see the team signing that might end up being dead weight? Finally, give me the one player you'd love to sign that would fit perfectly on the Ducks.

ARTHUR:
The Ducks need a true second line center. To echo something Bob Murray said in a recent interview, we haven't been the same since we traded Andy McDonald. That isn't to say it was a mistake to let him go. We could certainly use someone bigger at that position, someone who can't be targeted by other teams. But McDonald's toolbox (strong on the draw, speed through the neutral zone and great vision) is sorely missed.

That style of player isn't really on the market right now. Not in our price range. Henrik Sedin isn't on the market by himself, and we don't have the chips to offer sheet Phil Kessel. I have to believe that the only realistic move for the Ducks is a one-year-deal with a veteran. I like Saku Koivu for that. And I think trying other veterans like Bonk or Peca would convert them into dead weight, and long-term contracts with younger players would transform into dead weight within two years.

I don't know if the Ducks can solve any problems on the blueline through free agency. There is certainly disappointment in the trio of Festerling, Salcido and Mikkelson. Apparently, when you've got three kids ready to break out of the AHL, you've really got none. Mitera may leap over all of them.

Ultimately, if we shop for blueliners in free agency, I think we acquire a middle-pairing guy, and try to force someone from our system into the Top 4 i.e. Scotty or Whitney will have to play with Mikk, Fest or Mitera. As far as who that middle-pairing guy is, I can't say. Rick Paterson is good at finding second-year guys, like Brookbank and McIver, not to mention a second-contract guy like Montador. I foolishly want us to bring back Shane O'Brien, just to put some size and grit back in the lineup.

I'm also tempted to go after Jay McKee after his buyout, but I think the Bret Hedican Deadweight award would go to Darryl Sydor. I love you Darryl, but it might be time to use that hockey stick for shuffleboard.

DANIEL:
I agree that we haven't been the same since we traded Andy McDonald, but I think the one need we can't afford to ignore is in our Top 4 defense. Beauchemin is there, and I can't help but feel that if we let him get away, he will most assuredly make us pay for it in a way that has nothing to do with money. I like Beauchemin's ability to be nasty. He has a big shot, and he can eat up minutes. If not Beauchemin, Lepold could probably be had for a little less money if Florida doesn't sign him. I'm also in complete agreement that as long as we're bringing back our own draft picks, O'Brien would be more than serviceable. As it stands now, I just don't think we have enough on the blueline. Of course, It wouldn't surprise me to see Murray overcompensate and throw Mathieu-Schneider-money at the likes of a Blake, or worse an Aucoin, leaving us cash-strapped next offseason.

The free agent I want the most, though, is probably Martin Havlat. His style of play would really fit in Anaheim. I think he has the speed to keep up with Selanne, and he's a little more defensively responsible than Teemu. I think that would make him a great option on that line, and he could probably overcome some of Ebbett's shortcomings. Also, why not Chris Gratton. He may not be a scoring threat, but what about him and Brown as our top two PK Forwards? It's just to sexy to think about.

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Penalty Kill: Vatanen, Illo and Valentine

ARTHUR:
Anaheim calling to the hockey world...

This final profile concludes our coverage of the Ducks' 2009 Entry Draft Class.

The Ducks certainly journeyed out of North America this year, and for the first time in 8 years, refrained from selecting a player from The Q. They took a chance at virtually every stage of the Draft, and could just as likely end up with four to five NHLers as they could zero.


Round 4 - 106th Overall

Sami Vatanen D
According to The OC Register, Martin Madden called Vatanen a "home-run or a strike-out type of pick" due to the rearguard's diminutive stature. And at 5'9" 160 lbs, he isn't kidding.

Like Bobkov, whom the Ducks picked before him, Vatanen made an impression at the IIHF U18 World Championships. As the captain of Team Finland, he registered 5 points (0 G) in a six-game march to a Bronze Medal. The pint-sized blueliner finished with a +6 rating, but that number is slightly skewed by a +5 nothced in a 7-0 rout of Slovakia during the Preliminary Round.

It was the young Finn's performance in the Bronze Medal game, however, that left most scouts gushing his praises. Down 4-3 to Canada in the 3rd, Vatanen showcased his playmaking and power play quarterbacking ability, as Finland went 2 for 3 with the man-advantage in the final frame. Vatanen assisted both goals.

Upside?
-Size is his ONLY issue. A skillful passer, skater and playmaker, if he were a few inches taller, he might have gone in the 2nd Round.

-Room to Grow. At the Combine Fitness Testing, Vatanen was the Top Performer on the Wingate. He also did the most curl-ups. Clearly gifted physically, Vatanen still has room to get beefier, if not taller.

Downside?
-The Ducks took a chance on a pint-sized power play quarterback with Marc-Andre Bergeron. Assuming Carlyle is still coach when Vatanen gets a shot at the NHL (which is no small assumption), it may be hard for him to play effectively in his own zone.


Round 5 - 136th Overall

Radoslav Illo C
A center for the USHL's Tri-City Storm, Illo was sidelined by a shoulder injury at the beginning of the season. He came back to score 33 points (21 G), including 8 power play goals and 3 power play assists. He finished the season 2nd in shooting percentage amongst his fellow Storm.

Martin Madden broke down the pick for J.P. Hoornstra, saying of Illo, "He's an outstanding skater with great shot. He's not a physical player, he's a skilled player who goes to the hard areas."

Upside?
-Potential Steal. He was injured early in the scouting cycle, and if his late performance is indicative of his abilities, the Ducks will have a steal on their hands.

Downside?
-Raw Talent. Illo played a short season on a bad team in a league that doesn't get much respect for its level of competition. He may bust at the next level.


Round 6 - 166th Overall

Scott Valentine D
Valentine was the defenseman involved in the multi-player deal that sent John Tavares to the Knights. For London, the 6'2" 195 lb blueliner battled for ice time, producing 0 points and 20 PIM in 17 games. He took on a bigger role with Oshawa, and managed a goal and 8 assists in 26 games for the Generals. He plays an aggressive game, and has the skating ability and physical presence to back it up.

Upside?
-Promotion to General. If this season is any indication, Valentine will flourish even further with the playing time he gets in Oshawa. He'll play in all situations, and get a chance to develop every part of his game.

Downside?
-None. Valentine is a great value in the 6th Round. He may not develop offense, but how many 6th Round defenseman will? He may not make the NHL, but how many 6th Round defenseman will?

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Pronger For Lupul 2: Electric Boogaloo

ARTHUR:
Anaheim calling to the hockey world...

They say, in sports, it's impossible to quantify a player's worth. Nothing could be further from the truth for Chris Pronger. He's worth, exactly, Joffrey Lupul, a 1st Round defenseman, and assorted picks (relative to his Stanley Cup success at the time). The price has been proposed and paid twice. Most recently on Friday, when Anaheim moved their 6'6" defenseman to Philadelphia, the team currently paying Joffrey Lupul. For Pronger and Ryan Dingle, the Ducks acquired Lupul, Luca Sbisa, the Flyers' 2009 and 2010 1st Round Pick and a conditional 3rd Round pick for 2010/11. Puck Daddy's Greg Wyshynski reports the 3rd Rounder is conditional on whether or not the Flyers win the Stanley Cup.

Chris Pronger D
Salary: 6.25M (UFA 2010)
Instrumental in the Ducks' playoff run this season, Pronger played the most responsible shutdown defense of his career, tying a career low 12 PIM in Anaheim's series against the Sharks and Red Wings.

Ryan Dingle C
Salary: 850K (RFA 2009)
Dingle was signed as a free agent after a standout scoring career with the Denver Pioneers. He split time with the ECHL and AHL last season, but turned in 18 points in 70 games with the CHOPS this year.

Joffrey Lupul RW
Salary: 4.25M (UFA 2013)
Lupul notched 50 points (25 G) for the Flyers this season, his highest output since leaving Anaheim. He also scored a goal and an assist in the Flyers' series against the Penguins.

Luca Sbisa D (RFA 2011)
Salary: 875K
Sbisa was Philadelphia's 1st Round pick (19th overall) in last year's Entry Draft. He played 40 games for the Flyers this year, including one playoff game, accruing 38 PIM and 7 assists.

The Pronger trade was the other shoe in this year's edition of Scott Niedermayer's "To Play or Not To Play" saga, and it was widely believed that Prongs would leave Anaheim in a salary dump. However, with the addition of roughly 5M in cap hits, this deal is far from a dump. And with the Ducks making (arguably) minimal use of Philadelphia's pick, this looks no better than a deal that could have happened at the trade deadline i.e. Pronger for Kessel, who, in all likelihood, would not have re-signed for less than Lupul's salary.

Daniel, what SHOULD a Pronger trade have done for the Ducks, and what does this trade actually do?

DANIEL:
First, let me say that I am only writing this now because it is exactly now that I stopped sobbing long enough to write. This trade is horrible, and it's horrible for two reasons: Joffrey Lupul's contract and Joffrey Lupul's style of play. Before I get into that, let me answer the first question. The Pronger trade should have provided us with three things:

1) Draft Picks: Success!!
2) A top 6 forward for Selanne: Kind of, sort of, not really
3) Payroll flexibility: Epic Fail

I know a lot of Anaheim fans will remember the Lupul that scored 28 goals for us and 4 in one playoff game, and will love to have him back. The problem is that Lupul is a finisher, and Selanne is a finisher, and there's only one puck. Selanne can't spend all of his energy chasing the puck just so Lupul can reload. We need someone who can join Selanne on the rush and work the complex passing that makes his skills deadly to opponents. I don't think Lupul will be able to keep up with Selanne, and I think Lupul's inability to share the puck is only going to frustrate Teemu and ruin any potential chemistry. More importantly, if we move Ryan to the second-line instead of Lupul, it won't bring back the Selanne of 2006-2007 that we desperately neeed.

Next, Lupul's contract is 4.25 million/year for the next 4 years. That means that after we pay Niedermayer his money (about 6 million for 2-4 years depending on what he wants) and pay Wisniewski (another 2-3 million over 3-5 years), our cap hit next year is about 46 million, give or take a million, depending on who gets how much money. But that's without signing a Marchant or a Rob Niedermayer, or another Top 4 defenseman, like Beauchemin. Essentially, our cap number for the 2010-2011 season, a season where the cap is expected to drop again, will be in the neighborhood of 43 million, without counting any offer to Marchant or Rob, or the Top 4 defenseman we still need. Bobby Ryan and Jonas Hiller will be Free agents in 2010. If Bob Murray can get those two to stay for 7 million dollars, forget GM of the year, he deserves the Congressional Medal of Honor and a harem of Dutch girls from the red light district. For those of you playing the at-home-game, now is the time to curse Joffrey Lupul, or pray for his future departure, because he's taking up Bobby Ryan's and/or Jonas Hiler's money.

ARTHUR:
My salary cap forecast is a little different from yours, as I don't see Scott Niedermayer ever signing another multi-year deal, but I wholeheartedly agree that Bobby Ryan is going to want a hefty raise at the end of next year. When you look at the 2005 Draft Class: Sidney Crosby just raised the Stanley Cup, Jack Johnson's moving on to a new contract this season and Ryan just finished 2nd in Calder voting in a year where it took a freak injury to Teemu Selanne to get him out of the AHL. I wouldn't be surprised if he offer-sheeted us and walked.

And I refuse to believe that Bob Murray isn't lying awake at night, pondering that possibility. The nearest I can figure, he's operating under the assumption that Niedermayer and Selanne will retire after this season, which leaves plenty of money to waste on shoring up the holes they will leave. If that's the case, I agree with his shopping list, but completely disagree with his purchase.

Going to Philadelphia for a forward is like going to the Airport for lunch, and Joffrey Lupul is a $10 Big Mac, which we'll be eating for the next 4 years. I'm not saying he's devoid of nutritional value, but in every other hockey market (except maybe Manhattan) he's a $4 burger. Seriously, Murray. Where's the beef?

Again, I agree with the decision to use Chris Pronger to acquire a Top Six forward to either replace Selanne or act as an insurance policy against a Bobby Ryan offer sheet. That is just as valid as dumping salary and acquiring draft picks. But you have to do it affordably. Ideally, Murray should have acquired an expensive long-term contract that would make it unnecessary for him to pursue Beauchemin this offseason or shop the free agent market for a second line center. Instead, he bought a contract that makes both tasks, at once, imperative and impossible.

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Penalty Kill: Matt Clark and Igor Bobkov

ARTHUR:
Anaheim calling to the hockey world...

We continue our draft coverage of the Ducks' 2009 Draft Class with a profile of Round 2 selection Matt Clark and Round 3 selection Igor Bobkov.


Round 2 - 37th Overall

Matt Clark D
Utilizing the Columbus pick they obtained by trading down from 21, the Ducks selected Matt Clark of the Brampton Battalion, arguably the best defensive defenseman available in the 2nd Round.

The young rearguard battled his way up the Troops' depth chart this season. Not an easy task for a rookie playing for the best team in the OHL's Eastern Conference. The 6'3" 210 lb. blueliner is committed to refining his game by getting more mobile and more confident with his physical play. Unfortunately, his offensive skills are still largely a question mark.

Upside?
-Still gaining confidence, Clark may jump into more plays and find an offensive game next season.

-Glove Dropper. While not always successful, Clark has shown an affinity for scrapping. His 1.76 PIM/G in this year's playoffs was quite impressive, especially when you consider the OHL's reduced physicality.

-Battle Tested. Clark has faced some great forwards in the OHL and held his own.

Downside?
-His much touted +21 is a little deceiving. While he's put up an impressive plus/minus for a rookie, it should be noted that he finished the season with 3 G and 20 A. Fellow Brampton blueliner Brad Albert, who also posted a +21, finished the season with four fewer points.

-If he never finds his offensive game, and doesn't find the confidence to really dominate, he will plateau as a 2nd pairing stay-at-home player that may be overvalued at 37th overall.


Round 3 - 76th Overall

Igor Bobkov G
As the 3rd Round opened, only two goaltenders had been selected: Robin Lehner and Anders Nilsson. This left the Ducks with their pick of the litter, specifically Matthew Hackett (ranked 1st by Central Scouting amongst North American goaltenders). Anaheim opted for Igor Babkov (ranked 10th by CS amongst International netminders).

Bobkov turned in a lights-out performance at this year's IIHF World U18 Championship. His stats tell most of the tale, but he really turned heads when the Playoff Round began. In the Quarterfinal and Semifinal Rounds, against Sweden and Finland respectively, Bobkov allowed one goal on 96 shots. The 6'4" 190 lb netminder was a brick wall with eyes, but fell short in the Gold Medal game.

Bobkov plays a stand-up style, maximizing his absurdly large frame. He has a quick glove, but little to no mastery of the key elements of the butterfly technique.

Upside?
-Bobkov Big. Each of Bobkov's legs is the size of Darren Pang. While he doesn't go down often, he can potentially shut down the lower-third of the net with little, if any, lateral movement.

-Natural Ability. Bobkov is a raw talent with the potential to improve as his technique develops.

Downside?
-Stand-up Style. Bill Ranford was the league's last stand-up goaltender, and it's unlikely that a pure stand-up goaltender can still be dominant (or even effective) in today's game. Bobkov will have to learn a lot of basics.

-Big Project. Were Allaire still in Anaheim, he might have seen developing Bobkov as an unclimbable mountain, even 2-3 years down the line. The young Russian will have to find a hybrid style that can translate to the NHL, or he may never even get to the AHL.

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Penalty Kill: Kyle Palmieri

ARTHUR:
Anaheim calling to the hockey world...

"The Anaheim Ducks are proud to select, from the US National Development Team, forward Kyle Palmieri"

I suppose it would have been awkward for Martin Madden to say, "formerly of the US National Development Team," though I'm sure at least a few people were thinking it. Palmieri's off-ice trouble has become quite the melodrama. Officially, he was dismissed for violating team rules. Unofficially, a variety of tales have emerged, though none overwhelmingly trustworthy. Some paint Palmieri as a participant in the rule-breaking, some as an implicated party who refused to name the actual violators. The only certainty is that Palmieri missed an opportunity with the National Development Team, and must make the most of his time at Notre Dame, where he is committed in the Fall or Guelph of the OHL, who drafted him last year.

The Ducks are clearly unfazed by Palmieri's past. It seems the 5'10" 190 lb. center was their man late in the 1st round. When Anaheim was set to pick at 21, the best players that had slipped to 15 (Moore and Schroeder) were still available, but the Ducks again opted to pass on the pair, trading down to select Palmieri (at 26th) and Matt Clark (at 37th). Palmieri is only two inches taller than Schroeder (whose height sent him into draft board free fall) and Matt Clark, while highly regarded, lacks much (if not all) of John Moore's upside. The Ducks passed on a "bird in the hand" at 21 to go for "two in the bush." The odds are against a late 1st Rounder and a 2nd Rounder equaling the potential of a player projected 11-14th overall, but only time will tell.

Anaheim gets an interesting gamble in Palmieri. The young forward was arguably the most physically developed participant in the Fitness Testing at this year's Combine, and the scouts remain high on his quick skating, his banging play and his great hands in tight. Palmieri's toolbox, playing style and stature have garnered comparisons to Zach Parise, and that is certainly the potential plateau for his development. To get there, he needs to develop his hockey sense, and learn to use his quick moves and size to his advantage, rather than getting knocked down from play to play by the larger competition.

If his offense can't mature with the NCAA and then AHL competition, Palmieri could quickly become a third or fourth line grinder with the ability to make the ordinary plays extraordinarily well. That's still valuable, though perhaps a bit expensive at the end of the 1st Round.

Upside?
-Depending on which rumor you choose, Palmieri may have sacrificed his spot on the Development Team to protect his teammates. That would make him a strong character player. The alternative rumor, perhaps, just makes him appropriately mature for his age.

-Hard-working competitor. He may not have the skill set that Holland has, but he displays determination on the ice, which may make him the safer bet of the Ducks two 1st Round picks.

-Strength and quickness. Parise has shown how dangerous this particular combination can be. Despite his size, Palmieri has one of the more desirable upsides of any player in the Ducks' prospect pool.

Downside?
-Again, depending on which rumor you choose to believe, Palmieri may be prone to immature behavior.

-If he ends up a third line grinder, Palmieri and Clark may be a poorly conceived alternative to Moore or Schroeder.

-Size. Despite his strength, Palmieri's size can become an issue, especially joining a prospect pool where he can look very few players in the eye. He may have an uphill climb getting out of the minors.

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Penalty Kill: Peter Holland

ARTHUR:
Anaheim calling to the hockey world...

Two surprise picks in the Top 15: The Islanders traded UP (?) to be certain they could pick Calvin De Haan (a playmate familiar to Tavares) and the Ducks picked Peter Holland at 15th. Were the Draft held in March, both picks would have been timely, but after months of shifting Draft boards, the picks drew the appropriate gasps.

I should say that calling this pick a "mistake" ignores the scouting and interview work that Murray, Madden and their staffs have done over the past few months. However, with Moore and Schroeder still available, this was NOT the prudent "best player available" pick from the perspective of outside observers.

As a gauge of Holland's stock going into the draft, consider that he was a 2nd Round player on The Hockey News Mock Draft, and was picked 27th in the Hockey's Future Mock Draft.

So, who is Peter Holland?



In his rookie season with the Guelph Storm, Holland turned in a quiet effort of 8 G and 15 A, but he took on a larger role this year, and with it, a larger share of the scouting spotlight. His 28 G and 39 A were second only to Matt Kennedy in terms of point production for the Storm. But a slowed pace after a quick start led to the emergence of an oft misquoted characterization of Holland having a "lackadaisical attitude." The actual quote, from a THN article, compared the perception of his passive play as "lackadaisical" to an equally valid perception that his play was "analytical" and thought-out. Regardless of how you might choose to perceive these lapses in intensity, Holland has now been branded with the criticism of "inconsistent," as evidenced by this evaluation from Chris Edwards of NHL Central Scouting:

"When he is competing, he is very noticeable and effective. He is used both on the power-play and penalty-kill units, and at times he has been used at the point on the power-play. He skates very well, smooth, and he generates good speed. He has a very good shot." [emphasis added]

Holland seems aware of the perception. When describing his performance of late, the 18-year old was quick to point to the pressures of being a young leader on his team and the nervousness of knowing the scouts were watching him, factors that could certainly contribute to his inconsistency. Ultimately, whether you choose to paint his style of play as "thinking-man's-hockey" or "taking-shifts-off," the young center may lack the competitive drive to battle at the potential of his 6'2" 185 lb. size.

Upside?
- Good skater. Agile and nimble for his size.
- Incredible hockey sense that makes him a valuable player on the Kill AND Man-advantage.

Downside?
- Inconsistency. It's a question mark that has hung over everyone from Stanislav Chistov to Ryan Getzlaf.
- He may be a perimeter player faking a Power Forward style.
- "Bust" risk is high when you consider that the best players available were both consistent producers, and smart on both sides of the puck.

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Draft Day 1

ARTHUR:
Anaheim calling to the hockey world...

Pronger Trade
As we sat down to watch the draft, Daniel told me he'd heard a rumor we were in talks with the Flyers. I responded, "Maybe Lupul and a 1st rounder. Sound familiar?"

Sure enough. For Lupul and two 1st Rounders, Chris Pronger goes to the Flyers.

15th Overall Pick
Peter Holland
With the 15th overall pick, the Anaheim Ducks take Peter Holland.

Holland's stock was falling, though he was ranked very high as recently as April. The general 'knock' is that he had consistency issues. I will write up a penalty kill later tonight, but am looking forward to our pick at 21. The Ducks have certainly scouted and interviewed the kid, but from an outside perspective, he was definitely not the best player available, chosen ahead of Moore and a small but capable Schroeder.

26th Overall Pick - Converted from Philadelphia's 21st Overall For This Pick and a 2nd Rounder
Kyle Palmieri
Highlighted in my post on fitness testing, Palmieri's stock fell slightly after an alleged off-ice incident. He's a good pick at 26th, and I will try to add a dual Penalty Kill post tonight.

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